Last week, Trump just made a major statement at the crypto summit at the White House. In the past $SNXX 24 hours, the price is up 4.836%, sitting at 13.44, with trading volume close to 380 million. This is a fact—money is voting with its feet.
My core judgment is that SNXX’s current rise is an advance repricing of Trump’s trade logic in the on-chain U.S. stock derivatives market. What the market is debating is whether Trump’s policy narrative is shifting risk appetite toward certain traditional assets—not whether the underlying asset’s fundamentals have abruptly changed.
Two signals support this view. First, the price is being pushed higher, yet the funding rate is precisely holding at 0. In the crypto derivatives market, the theoretical value of the funding rate is usually positive, so a funding rate of 0 indicates a rare equilibrium state between the leverage forces of longs and shorts. Yet the price has moved up by 4.836%. This usually means the buying pressure driving the rally isn’t coming from aggressively adding to long positions in futures; rather, it likely reflects spot buy orders or changes in lower-level position structures. Second, open interest is 2.05 million—on a sizable scale. Given funding is zero, holders aren’t paying funding fees, but the price is still rising. This is a typical order-book pattern of “shorts not resisting” or “longs led by spot.” A single-source report indicates that Trump has been frequently adjusting his investment portfolio recently and selling tech stocks. That could strengthen the market’s bet on his “reshaping U.S. industries” policy, with capital flowing out of directions like tech and searching for traditional or policy-beneficiary targets—making SNXX one of the exit routes as a U.S. stock derivative.
The strongest counterargument is that the actual economic impact of Trump’s tariff policy is far more complex than the narrative suggests. A single-source report from Bloomberg shows that his tariff policy even unexpectedly boosted Canada’s stock market relative performance. This implies the market’s trading logic may be overly simplified and linear. If inflation is pushed further higher by tariffs, and the Fed is forced to keep high interest rates for longer, the overall valuation of U.S. stocks would face downward pressure instead—and SNXX would be dragged down as well. The market is currently ignoring this delayed but heavy negative feedback.
The second-order effect is that the current zero-funding equilibrium is extremely fragile. Once the price can’t continue rising to validate the logic, or any data emerges that weakens Trump’s trade narrative, holders sitting at zero-rate positions will quickly shift from watching to closing. Then, the disappearance of bids and the surge of sell orders would create a feedback spiral: where would the price come from, and where would it go back to?
When will my judgment fail?
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SNXX
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
My core judgment is that SNXX’s current rise is an advance repricing of Trump’s trade logic in the on-chain U.S. stock derivatives market. What the market is debating is whether Trump’s policy narrative is shifting risk appetite toward certain traditional assets—not whether the underlying asset’s fundamentals have abruptly changed.
Two signals support this view. First, the price is being pushed higher, yet the funding rate is precisely holding at 0. In the crypto derivatives market, the theoretical value of the funding rate is usually positive, so a funding rate of 0 indicates a rare equilibrium state between the leverage forces of longs and shorts. Yet the price has moved up by 4.836%. This usually means the buying pressure driving the rally isn’t coming from aggressively adding to long positions in futures; rather, it likely reflects spot buy orders or changes in lower-level position structures. Second, open interest is 2.05 million—on a sizable scale. Given funding is zero, holders aren’t paying funding fees, but the price is still rising. This is a typical order-book pattern of “shorts not resisting” or “longs led by spot.” A single-source report indicates that Trump has been frequently adjusting his investment portfolio recently and selling tech stocks. That could strengthen the market’s bet on his “reshaping U.S. industries” policy, with capital flowing out of directions like tech and searching for traditional or policy-beneficiary targets—making SNXX one of the exit routes as a U.S. stock derivative.
The strongest counterargument is that the actual economic impact of Trump’s tariff policy is far more complex than the narrative suggests. A single-source report from Bloomberg shows that his tariff policy even unexpectedly boosted Canada’s stock market relative performance. This implies the market’s trading logic may be overly simplified and linear. If inflation is pushed further higher by tariffs, and the Fed is forced to keep high interest rates for longer, the overall valuation of U.S. stocks would face downward pressure instead—and SNXX would be dragged down as well. The market is currently ignoring this delayed but heavy negative feedback.
The second-order effect is that the current zero-funding equilibrium is extremely fragile. Once the price can’t continue rising to validate the logic, or any data emerges that weakens Trump’s trade narrative, holders sitting at zero-rate positions will quickly shift from watching to closing. Then, the disappearance of bids and the surge of sell orders would create a feedback spiral: where would the price come from, and where would it go back to?
When will my judgment fail?
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SNXX
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?