Gold fell from its three-month high of $4,697 on August 25 to around $4,436 today, down 5.5%, and it has broken below the 200-day moving average—its first time making multiple closing below this line since early June.
Gold was still up about 10% for August, the strongest monthly performance since September 1999. Then Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole: the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% to 55.7%. The U.S. dollar strengthened as a result, and in the final few trading days, gold rapidly gave back roughly $300 of its gains.
The logic behind the drop is clear: gold yields nothing; the higher the interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold. "The market is pricing in a possible rate hike in September, the dollar at a 13-month high, and lower inflation expectations—all of which put heavy pressure on precious metals."
Technically, there is a specific warning line: $4,300 is what analysts describe as the "line between bulls and bears"—if the weekly close breaks below it, the next technical target is $3,400 (corresponding to the 100% Fibonacci extension of this year’s April high). Today’s $4,436 is still above this level, but not by much.
However, Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end target of $4,900, citing central bank gold-buying demand of roughly 60 tons per month—this figure provides structural downside support. Fidelity also keeps a moderately bullish stance.
For BTC: gold and BTC are both being restrained today by rate-hike expectations. They are priced within the same interest-rate expectations framework. If rate-hike expectations cool further, both have room to rebound; if a hike actually materializes, both face pressure.
$XAUT
$BTC
#黄金较三个月高点下跌5.5%
Gold was still up about 10% for August, the strongest monthly performance since September 1999. Then Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole: the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% to 55.7%. The U.S. dollar strengthened as a result, and in the final few trading days, gold rapidly gave back roughly $300 of its gains.
The logic behind the drop is clear: gold yields nothing; the higher the interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold. "The market is pricing in a possible rate hike in September, the dollar at a 13-month high, and lower inflation expectations—all of which put heavy pressure on precious metals."
Technically, there is a specific warning line: $4,300 is what analysts describe as the "line between bulls and bears"—if the weekly close breaks below it, the next technical target is $3,400 (corresponding to the 100% Fibonacci extension of this year’s April high). Today’s $4,436 is still above this level, but not by much.
However, Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end target of $4,900, citing central bank gold-buying demand of roughly 60 tons per month—this figure provides structural downside support. Fidelity also keeps a moderately bullish stance.
For BTC: gold and BTC are both being restrained today by rate-hike expectations. They are priced within the same interest-rate expectations framework. If rate-hike expectations cool further, both have room to rebound; if a hike actually materializes, both face pressure.
$XAUT
$BTC
#黄金较三个月高点下跌5.5%
