Last week, ＄NVDA’s earnings were so strong—yet Waresh put “rate hikes” back on the table again. So this week, what should the US stock market really focus on: earnings, or jobs?
The full Wise investment calendar has already been sent out. Today is Tuesday, and I want to pull out the one thing I personally care about most this week.
I think this week is extremely critical.
Last week already laid out the biggest contradiction in the US stock market right now: companies like ＄NVDA, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike continued to prove that AI and enterprise tech spending hasn’t run out of steam—the Nasdaq and the S&P both ended higher;
But core PCE is still at 3.3%. Warsh was clearly hawkish again at Jackson Hole. The probability of a rate hike in September has jumped back to around 57%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has also moved back above 4.7%.
So what the market lacks isn’t a better AI earnings report.
It’s waiting for the US job market to tell everyone whether the economy is weak enough to make the Fed stop.
This week, I’m focusing on four things:
1️⃣ The entire set of employment data from Tuesday through Friday.
Tuesday: JOLTS. Wednesday: ADP. Thursday: ISM services employment. And finally, Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls.
July’s nonfarm payrolls were -23,000. The market expectation for August is roughly +58,000.
My own baseline is: employment is cooling, but it hasn’t collapsed.
So if on Friday we end up with 40,000–80,000 in net new jobs and the unemployment rate around 4.1%, I’ll actually feel most comfortable. If it’s too strong, the market will keep pricing in September hikes. If it stays in negative growth, people will start worrying whether something is wrong with the US economy.
How the indices move this week, I think, will largely depend on this line.
2️⃣ The 10-year and 30-year Treasuries.
For the 10Y, I’m still drawing 4.75% a bit thicker.
Last week’s AI earnings showed that profits can still rise—but if 10Y keeps pushing into and above 4.75%, and 30Y keeps churning above 5.1%, then the rally in high-multiple tech stocks going forward can only rely more and more on EPS continuing to beat expectations.
So this week, don’t just watch whether ＄QQQ is up.
If the bond market doesn’t cooperate, I’ll be more cautious the next time tech stocks surge.
3️⃣ ＄AVGO after the close on Wednesday.
This might be the most worth-watching tech earnings report this week.
＄NVDA has already proven that GPU demand is still very strong. Now it’s Broadcom’s turn to answer whether Custom ASICs and AI networking are also accelerating at the same pace.
In the last quarter, the company’s target for Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was $16 billion, up more than 200% year over year.
This time I won’t obsess too much whether it beats by $200 million or $500 million.
What I really want to hear is how Hock Tan talks about next quarter.
If AI revenue continues to move higher, then ＄MRVL, ＄TSM, HBM, and optical communications will all get another round of validation.
4️⃣ For ＄QQQ this week, I’ll focus on price first—I’m not in a rush to chase.
With macro data this packed, I’d rather wait for the market to show its direction first.
For ＄QQQ, I’ll first watch the range that has been contested back and forth. Next, I’ll pay close attention to whether there is support near 700. On the upside, I’ll mainly watch whether 710–715 can regain and hold above.
If employment cools moderately, Treasury yields drift lower, and at the same time ＄QQQ brings the upside pressure back onto the level above again, I’ll feel much better.
If Nonfarm is strong, and 10Y breaks above 4.75% again, then I’d rather keep waiting for a better entry point.
So my thinking this week is actually very simple: jobs determine whether the Fed can stay hawkish, Treasuries determine how much valuation tech stocks can still carry, and AVGO further verifies whether the “money for AI” is still continuing to spread down the industrial chain.
There will be plenty of news. If you don’t know where to look for these updates, just go to the top-right corner of our website—every week we automatically update the major events of the week.
The full Wise investment calendar has already been sent out. Today is Tuesday, and I want to pull out the one thing I personally care about most this week.
I think this week is extremely critical.
Last week already laid out the biggest contradiction in the US stock market right now: companies like ＄NVDA, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike continued to prove that AI and enterprise tech spending hasn’t run out of steam—the Nasdaq and the S&P both ended higher;
But core PCE is still at 3.3%. Warsh was clearly hawkish again at Jackson Hole. The probability of a rate hike in September has jumped back to around 57%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has also moved back above 4.7%.
So what the market lacks isn’t a better AI earnings report.
It’s waiting for the US job market to tell everyone whether the economy is weak enough to make the Fed stop.
This week, I’m focusing on four things:
1️⃣ The entire set of employment data from Tuesday through Friday.
Tuesday: JOLTS. Wednesday: ADP. Thursday: ISM services employment. And finally, Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls.
July’s nonfarm payrolls were -23,000. The market expectation for August is roughly +58,000.
My own baseline is: employment is cooling, but it hasn’t collapsed.
So if on Friday we end up with 40,000–80,000 in net new jobs and the unemployment rate around 4.1%, I’ll actually feel most comfortable. If it’s too strong, the market will keep pricing in September hikes. If it stays in negative growth, people will start worrying whether something is wrong with the US economy.
How the indices move this week, I think, will largely depend on this line.
2️⃣ The 10-year and 30-year Treasuries.
For the 10Y, I’m still drawing 4.75% a bit thicker.
Last week’s AI earnings showed that profits can still rise—but if 10Y keeps pushing into and above 4.75%, and 30Y keeps churning above 5.1%, then the rally in high-multiple tech stocks going forward can only rely more and more on EPS continuing to beat expectations.
So this week, don’t just watch whether ＄QQQ is up.
If the bond market doesn’t cooperate, I’ll be more cautious the next time tech stocks surge.
3️⃣ ＄AVGO after the close on Wednesday.
This might be the most worth-watching tech earnings report this week.
＄NVDA has already proven that GPU demand is still very strong. Now it’s Broadcom’s turn to answer whether Custom ASICs and AI networking are also accelerating at the same pace.
In the last quarter, the company’s target for Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was $16 billion, up more than 200% year over year.
This time I won’t obsess too much whether it beats by $200 million or $500 million.
What I really want to hear is how Hock Tan talks about next quarter.
If AI revenue continues to move higher, then ＄MRVL, ＄TSM, HBM, and optical communications will all get another round of validation.
4️⃣ For ＄QQQ this week, I’ll focus on price first—I’m not in a rush to chase.
With macro data this packed, I’d rather wait for the market to show its direction first.
For ＄QQQ, I’ll first watch the range that has been contested back and forth. Next, I’ll pay close attention to whether there is support near 700. On the upside, I’ll mainly watch whether 710–715 can regain and hold above.
If employment cools moderately, Treasury yields drift lower, and at the same time ＄QQQ brings the upside pressure back onto the level above again, I’ll feel much better.
If Nonfarm is strong, and 10Y breaks above 4.75% again, then I’d rather keep waiting for a better entry point.
So my thinking this week is actually very simple: jobs determine whether the Fed can stay hawkish, Treasuries determine how much valuation tech stocks can still carry, and AVGO further verifies whether the “money for AI” is still continuing to spread down the industrial chain.
There will be plenty of news. If you don’t know where to look for these updates, just go to the top-right corner of our website—every week we automatically update the major events of the week.
