Tesla surged 5.5% in 24 hours, yet the contract funding rate remains at zero. What is the market trading?
I think it’s the Trump trade that’s driving this. A single-source report from Barchart suggests that Trump’s policy tightening grid management could directly boost Tesla’s rapidly growing energy storage business, which is seen as a new catalyst. But another historical record shows that in April 2025, when Trump’s tariff shock hit, Tesla had previously plunged 42%. Now that the funding rate is zero, it means this rally hasn’t been accompanied by overcrowded longs. The positioning looks relatively clean—different from the last selloff that was driven by sentiment.
The core contradiction is that policy can be either a new engine or a repeat of risk. The market is clearly trading an energy narrative, but I believe it’s underestimating the cost of uncertainty in trade policy. Institutions may first trade the policy upside; once macro pressure starts to show, they could pull out quickly.
If the price breaks below 350, I’d conclude that the near-term optimistic narrative has failed. Right now I’m swing trading in the 350–370 range: trimming at the upper end, trying longs near the lower end, and not chasing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #TSLA
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
I think it’s the Trump trade that’s driving this. A single-source report from Barchart suggests that Trump’s policy tightening grid management could directly boost Tesla’s rapidly growing energy storage business, which is seen as a new catalyst. But another historical record shows that in April 2025, when Trump’s tariff shock hit, Tesla had previously plunged 42%. Now that the funding rate is zero, it means this rally hasn’t been accompanied by overcrowded longs. The positioning looks relatively clean—different from the last selloff that was driven by sentiment.
The core contradiction is that policy can be either a new engine or a repeat of risk. The market is clearly trading an energy narrative, but I believe it’s underestimating the cost of uncertainty in trade policy. Institutions may first trade the policy upside; once macro pressure starts to show, they could pull out quickly.
If the price breaks below 350, I’d conclude that the near-term optimistic narrative has failed. Right now I’m swing trading in the 350–370 range: trimming at the upper end, trying longs near the lower end, and not chasing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #TSLA
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?