The Nasdaq opened and bled immediately; the BTC longs that chased higher are now replacing rate-risk buy orders.
As of 20:00, $BTC has already closed: the 4H candle rose from 78196.01 to 78315.43, with a high at 78802, yet it still hasn’t closed the real body above 78331. The spot trading volume is 2467 BTC—4.8% higher than the average of the previous 5 candles, and 21.1% higher than the previous 20. Active buying accounts for 54.7%. The buy side still has the advantage, but it can’t break through the prior high, indicating that the cost of the push higher was absorbed by the sellers. The daily line just closed at 77682; the fluctuations after 20:00 only confirm the rhythm.
After the U.S. stock market opened, funds chose the same route: at 21:30, the Nasdaq started at 26354, below the previous close of 26402; by 21:36 it fell to 26288, dropping another 0.25% after the open. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.720% last week to 4.746%, while the U.S. dollar index actually fell 0.17% to 99.53. Weakness in the dollar couldn’t rescue risk assets either—this shows the current pressure is coming from interest rates and tech stocks, not from currency moves alone. In the same period, $BTC slid from around 78055 to 77864, and $ETH from around 2450 to 2446; trapped are the chase longs that mistook intraday highs as a 4H breakout.
The only relevant catalyst is that the cash market in U.S. stocks has priced in the weekend oil-price shock alongside Friday’s hawkish rate expectations into spot; there are no new added crypto-related announcements from the Fed and SEC, and the ETF creations/redemptions on the 31st have not yet formed. Before release at 21:38, $BTC spot is about $77994.97, $ETH about $2448.67. I am clearly bearish on BTC: the first target is 77682, and the second target is 77000. For market commentary only, not investment advice.#BTC #U.S. stock market link
The comments are only betting on one thing: will 77682 be tested first after being taken, or will the Nasdaq recover 26402 first?
Only invalidation condition: the $BTC 4H real body closes above 78802.
As of 20:00, $BTC has already closed: the 4H candle rose from 78196.01 to 78315.43, with a high at 78802, yet it still hasn’t closed the real body above 78331. The spot trading volume is 2467 BTC—4.8% higher than the average of the previous 5 candles, and 21.1% higher than the previous 20. Active buying accounts for 54.7%. The buy side still has the advantage, but it can’t break through the prior high, indicating that the cost of the push higher was absorbed by the sellers. The daily line just closed at 77682; the fluctuations after 20:00 only confirm the rhythm.
After the U.S. stock market opened, funds chose the same route: at 21:30, the Nasdaq started at 26354, below the previous close of 26402; by 21:36 it fell to 26288, dropping another 0.25% after the open. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.720% last week to 4.746%, while the U.S. dollar index actually fell 0.17% to 99.53. Weakness in the dollar couldn’t rescue risk assets either—this shows the current pressure is coming from interest rates and tech stocks, not from currency moves alone. In the same period, $BTC slid from around 78055 to 77864, and $ETH from around 2450 to 2446; trapped are the chase longs that mistook intraday highs as a 4H breakout.
The only relevant catalyst is that the cash market in U.S. stocks has priced in the weekend oil-price shock alongside Friday’s hawkish rate expectations into spot; there are no new added crypto-related announcements from the Fed and SEC, and the ETF creations/redemptions on the 31st have not yet formed. Before release at 21:38, $BTC spot is about $77994.97, $ETH about $2448.67. I am clearly bearish on BTC: the first target is 77682, and the second target is 77000. For market commentary only, not investment advice.#BTC #U.S. stock market link
The comments are only betting on one thing: will 77682 be tested first after being taken, or will the Nasdaq recover 26402 first?
Only invalidation condition: the $BTC 4H real body closes above 78802.