$BABA 24 hours down 1.74% to 116.92, funding rate 0.00006434, fee rate looks tight. Price is down, but the funding rate is still positive—longs are paying a bit of extra cost, and shorts aren’t crowded. This setup suggests the drop hasn’t triggered a unanimous bearish outlook; there aren’t many people chasing shorts. The entry cost for new short positions isn’t high right now, but I won’t follow into it—because the funding rate is too thin, it means the direction isn’t extreme enough. I think this move is weak, bearish, and drifting lower; the probability of a crash is low. If the price returns above 116.92, the short thesis would fail and I’ll go long/exit the short. Initial trade size should not exceed 5% of the total position.

Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BABA

Where do you think this assessment is most likely to be wrong?