CATUSDT fell 1.933% over the past 24 hours. Price is 802.07, and the funding rate is still sitting at 0.00141440. This setup isn’t complicated: the price is slightly down, the funding rate is still positive, which means the longs haven’t exited, but there’s also no new money pushing the price up. The “Trump trade” line has kept only sentiment, not the buy-side.
The Trump trade is about repricing risk appetite. In theory, these on-chain US stock-style futures should be most sensitive to news. Today on the board, CAT hasn’t seen the funding rate flip negative—shorts haven’t taken control—but the price also can’t move higher. Longs are paying positive funding rates while waiting for a breakout that never comes. Their position costs are getting burned every day. With OI around 591.88, I don’t see signs of panic liquidations; it looks more like they’re just dragging it out.
This is the structure I’m most worried about. Since the drop isn’t big, no one stops out; and with the funding rate still positive, the longer the longs hold on, the more expensive it gets. The other side will say the Trump trade could reignite at any moment—one piece of news could pull CAT back up. That’s possible, but the funding rate is already pricing in the current long/short costs. If the price doesn’t rise, the longs are effectively paying rent to the shorts.
My view is that this is a “bleed-out” structure, not the eve of a breakout. If next, the price recovers today’s decline and turns back to going up, and the funding rate continues to rise, then this view would be invalid—longs would regain control of pricing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CAT
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
The Trump trade is about repricing risk appetite. In theory, these on-chain US stock-style futures should be most sensitive to news. Today on the board, CAT hasn’t seen the funding rate flip negative—shorts haven’t taken control—but the price also can’t move higher. Longs are paying positive funding rates while waiting for a breakout that never comes. Their position costs are getting burned every day. With OI around 591.88, I don’t see signs of panic liquidations; it looks more like they’re just dragging it out.
This is the structure I’m most worried about. Since the drop isn’t big, no one stops out; and with the funding rate still positive, the longer the longs hold on, the more expensive it gets. The other side will say the Trump trade could reignite at any moment—one piece of news could pull CAT back up. That’s possible, but the funding rate is already pricing in the current long/short costs. If the price doesn’t rise, the longs are effectively paying rent to the shorts.
My view is that this is a “bleed-out” structure, not the eve of a breakout. If next, the price recovers today’s decline and turns back to going up, and the funding rate continues to rise, then this view would be invalid—longs would regain control of pricing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CAT
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?