$CAT as an on-chain U.S. stock futures contract, it fell 1.933% over the past 24 hours, with the price pinned at 802.07. But the funding rate is still positive at 0.00141440, meaning longs are paying shorts every 8 hours.
This is a typical scenario of longs getting trapped. As price drifts lower, the positions holding on don’t cut losses—they just keep bearing and paying funding fees. The confidence provided by the Trump trade is still there, but the money is slowly leaking out.
Open interest is only 591.88, so the order book isn’t that thick. Because it’s not thick, once price breaks below a key psychological level, the stop-loss orders coming out can hit very fast. In this structure, every funding fee a long pays is essentially buying time—betting that the Trump trade will eventually come back.
The opposing view is that the price is just undergoing a healthy pullback and that the broader direction of the Trump trade hasn’t changed. I accept that logic, but the problem is that funding hasn’t flipped negative. That suggests there are still too many bullish positions—the car is too crowded. A real bottom usually isn’t a place where nobody wants to pay to stay bullish; it’s not like the situation we have right now.
I’m not going long here. I’ll wait for two signals before considering it: funding dropping below zero, or price reclaiming above 802. Chasing longs now is using your own interest to subsidize the trapped longs from earlier.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CAT
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?
This is a typical scenario of longs getting trapped. As price drifts lower, the positions holding on don’t cut losses—they just keep bearing and paying funding fees. The confidence provided by the Trump trade is still there, but the money is slowly leaking out.
Open interest is only 591.88, so the order book isn’t that thick. Because it’s not thick, once price breaks below a key psychological level, the stop-loss orders coming out can hit very fast. In this structure, every funding fee a long pays is essentially buying time—betting that the Trump trade will eventually come back.
The opposing view is that the price is just undergoing a healthy pullback and that the broader direction of the Trump trade hasn’t changed. I accept that logic, but the problem is that funding hasn’t flipped negative. That suggests there are still too many bullish positions—the car is too crowded. A real bottom usually isn’t a place where nobody wants to pay to stay bullish; it’s not like the situation we have right now.
I’m not going long here. I’ll wait for two signals before considering it: funding dropping below zero, or price reclaiming above 802. Chasing longs now is using your own interest to subsidize the trapped longs from earlier.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CAT
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?