$RKLB 24 hours down 3.032%, current price 63.33, and the funding rate is still hanging at a positive value of 0.00019881. As the price moves down, longs are still paying shorts—this combination is something Old Dog definitely doesn’t like at first glance.
I think this spot isn’t suitable for going long on the left side. A 3% drop isn’t a crash, but the fact that funding keeps staying positive indicates that the open long positions haven’t exited because of the decline. Instead, they’re rolling over and holding to pay the funding. A positive funding rate means longs are paying shorts; the more longs keep holding on, the higher their holding cost becomes. Once the price keeps grinding, the pressure to reduce positions will grow on its own. Trading volume is 5,673,091.03, and open interest is 145,388.10. I only look at the absolute values—I don’t compare these two, and units being different makes that comparison meaningless.
The strongest counterargument will say that a fee rate of 0.00019881 isn’t extreme for perpetuals on Tradifi; $RKLB falling 3% might just be short-term profit-taking and the trend hasn’t broken. That explanation makes sense—funding being positive only shows there are more longs, and it can’t be used alone as a top signal. But Old Dog is looking at a mismatch between price and funding: while the price is falling, longs are still willing to pay. This doesn’t look like panic liquidation and clearing; it looks more like a stalemate.
The second-order effect is: with this funding rate, shorts are collecting money without any motivation to close, while longs are bleeding every settlement cycle. If the price continues to grind below 63.33, some longs will first reduce positions to lower fees, which will amplify the downward momentum. Conversely, if the price quickly snaps back above 63.33, that small amount of funding shorts receive won’t be enough to hurt much, and the rebound may be relatively weak.
Old Dog’s move is to keep observing—no bottom-catching, and no rushing to go short. If $RKLB holds steady above 63.33 and funding remains positive, I can consider trying longs on a pullback with a small position. If funding turns negative while the price is still falling, that means shorts are starting to pay for carry trades to hold positions, and I won’t touch it. My attitude toward the current position is light position or no position; I’m not treating a 3% drop as a cheap-buy signal.
Invalidation conditions are clearly stated: as soon as funding flips from positive to negative, my whole judgment about longs holding on goes away—because it means the market has become crowded with shorts and the logic reverses. Another signal: if the price closes back above 63.33, that isn’t an invalidation, but it will make me shift my view from somewhat bearish to range-bound.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #RKLB #RKLBUSDT $RKLB
I think this spot isn’t suitable for going long on the left side. A 3% drop isn’t a crash, but the fact that funding keeps staying positive indicates that the open long positions haven’t exited because of the decline. Instead, they’re rolling over and holding to pay the funding. A positive funding rate means longs are paying shorts; the more longs keep holding on, the higher their holding cost becomes. Once the price keeps grinding, the pressure to reduce positions will grow on its own. Trading volume is 5,673,091.03, and open interest is 145,388.10. I only look at the absolute values—I don’t compare these two, and units being different makes that comparison meaningless.
The strongest counterargument will say that a fee rate of 0.00019881 isn’t extreme for perpetuals on Tradifi; $RKLB falling 3% might just be short-term profit-taking and the trend hasn’t broken. That explanation makes sense—funding being positive only shows there are more longs, and it can’t be used alone as a top signal. But Old Dog is looking at a mismatch between price and funding: while the price is falling, longs are still willing to pay. This doesn’t look like panic liquidation and clearing; it looks more like a stalemate.
The second-order effect is: with this funding rate, shorts are collecting money without any motivation to close, while longs are bleeding every settlement cycle. If the price continues to grind below 63.33, some longs will first reduce positions to lower fees, which will amplify the downward momentum. Conversely, if the price quickly snaps back above 63.33, that small amount of funding shorts receive won’t be enough to hurt much, and the rebound may be relatively weak.
Old Dog’s move is to keep observing—no bottom-catching, and no rushing to go short. If $RKLB holds steady above 63.33 and funding remains positive, I can consider trying longs on a pullback with a small position. If funding turns negative while the price is still falling, that means shorts are starting to pay for carry trades to hold positions, and I won’t touch it. My attitude toward the current position is light position or no position; I’m not treating a 3% drop as a cheap-buy signal.
Invalidation conditions are clearly stated: as soon as funding flips from positive to negative, my whole judgment about longs holding on goes away—because it means the market has become crowded with shorts and the logic reverses. Another signal: if the price closes back above 63.33, that isn’t an invalidation, but it will make me shift my view from somewhat bearish to range-bound.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #RKLB #RKLBUSDT $RKLB