$SKHY Macro conditions today have no new interest rate or policy incremental to follow, so we can only look at the contract’s own three numbers: price 161.52, 24h down 1.404%, funding fee 0, and OI 571,900. This combination suggests the drop wasn’t driven by the contract market itself “killing itself.” With neither long nor short paying, there isn’t a one-sided liquidation by leveraged positions.
My view is that this move looks like transmission from the underlying side. The contract side hasn’t actively added shorts. After falling by 1.404 points, the funding fee is still at zero, indicating shorts didn’t rush to smash the rate negative, and longs also didn’t urgently pay to exit. With OI at 571,900, there’s no squeeze foundation at the current level; in the short term it just tracks the underlying and has no clear direction of its own.
The strongest counter-evidence is that OI hasn’t dropped. Price is down but positions haven’t decreased, meaning those who entered earlier are still holding on. If the underlying continues to weaken, these positions will shift from “holding” to passive liquidation. Then the funding fee would flip negative and OI would jump, and only then would the sell-off speed up.
Right now the cost is zero—no one is being forced to act, which is exactly what makes this kind of structure the most boring. My action: I won’t go long, and I won’t chase shorts.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SKHY
Where do you think this set of judgment is most likely to be wrong?
My view is that this move looks like transmission from the underlying side. The contract side hasn’t actively added shorts. After falling by 1.404 points, the funding fee is still at zero, indicating shorts didn’t rush to smash the rate negative, and longs also didn’t urgently pay to exit. With OI at 571,900, there’s no squeeze foundation at the current level; in the short term it just tracks the underlying and has no clear direction of its own.
The strongest counter-evidence is that OI hasn’t dropped. Price is down but positions haven’t decreased, meaning those who entered earlier are still holding on. If the underlying continues to weaken, these positions will shift from “holding” to passive liquidation. Then the funding fee would flip negative and OI would jump, and only then would the sell-off speed up.
Right now the cost is zero—no one is being forced to act, which is exactly what makes this kind of structure the most boring. My action: I won’t go long, and I won’t chase shorts.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SKHY
Where do you think this set of judgment is most likely to be wrong?