WALL STREET IS WALKING INTO A VERY BUSY WEEK.
Warsh has just raised expectations for a September rate hike from about 40% to 62.6%, driving the 2Y Treasury yield higher sharply and putting pressure on risk assets.
But the market is splitting quite clearly:
• Gold -3%, Silver -4% as real yields rise
• Nvidia -4.57%, AMD -2.3%, ARM down more than -6%
• Amazon nearly +4%, Microsoft +1.68%, Google +1.74%, Meta up more than +1%
• Elastic +19% as the AI story shifts from “burning money to buy GPUs” to “AI starts making money”
In simple terms: AI hardware is being sold off, while cloud and software are being viewed as “AI landlords.” Barclays estimates that for every $100 of revenue from AI model companies, about $35–45 flows into AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud—of which cloud providers can retain roughly $10–20 in operating profit.
This week also has a stack of catalysts:
Sep 1: Apple changes CEO, NIO earnings, and a surge in component price targets
Sep 2: Dell, Credo, MongoDB, Palo Alto earnings + EIA oil inventories
Sep 3: Broadcom earnings, the Fed Beige Book, Waller speech, Tesla Cybercab
Sep 4: US Nonfarm Payrolls — the biggest catalyst of the week
Sep 6: OPEC+ meeting
And while the Fed remains hawkish, oil gets support from US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
I think this week won’t lack volatility. The question is: will it be the Fed, oil, or AI earnings that drives the market?
Are you leaning risk-on or risk-off for this week?
#crypto #Macro #AI #stocks #BrainrotCrypto
Warsh has just raised expectations for a September rate hike from about 40% to 62.6%, driving the 2Y Treasury yield higher sharply and putting pressure on risk assets.
But the market is splitting quite clearly:
• Gold -3%, Silver -4% as real yields rise
• Nvidia -4.57%, AMD -2.3%, ARM down more than -6%
• Amazon nearly +4%, Microsoft +1.68%, Google +1.74%, Meta up more than +1%
• Elastic +19% as the AI story shifts from “burning money to buy GPUs” to “AI starts making money”
In simple terms: AI hardware is being sold off, while cloud and software are being viewed as “AI landlords.” Barclays estimates that for every $100 of revenue from AI model companies, about $35–45 flows into AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud—of which cloud providers can retain roughly $10–20 in operating profit.
This week also has a stack of catalysts:
Sep 1: Apple changes CEO, NIO earnings, and a surge in component price targets
Sep 2: Dell, Credo, MongoDB, Palo Alto earnings + EIA oil inventories
Sep 3: Broadcom earnings, the Fed Beige Book, Waller speech, Tesla Cybercab
Sep 4: US Nonfarm Payrolls — the biggest catalyst of the week
Sep 6: OPEC+ meeting
And while the Fed remains hawkish, oil gets support from US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
I think this week won’t lack volatility. The question is: will it be the Fed, oil, or AI earnings that drives the market?
Are you leaning risk-on or risk-off for this week?
#crypto #Macro #AI #stocks #BrainrotCrypto
