AAVE current price 123u, just a few steps away from the 7-day low—down -13% for the week. The contract open interest got cut by 6.95% in a single day. The four-quadrant chart was directly marked as bear_capitulation. Spot large orders net outflow 350k USD over three hours, and out of 12 candles, not a single positive one could be placed. In this market, just a quick glance shows it’s all the short side’s territory.
But the order book is singing the opposite song: spot active buy/sell ratio is 1.95, active contract buying makes up 60%. Within an hour, direction flipped back to long, and the price has reclaimed above the 20-day moving average line. The chips being dumped aren’t going unpicked—they’re being chewed up one bite at a time by the active buy orders. Under this big bearish candle, sell pressure is already running out.
Getting positions cut by nearly 7% is actually a good thing: the long side’s leverage has been washed out about as much as possible. Floating supply is cleared, and what remains—whale positions—still has 65% leaning toward the long side. The funding rate has also turned negative, so shorts are queuing to pay. With clean turnover and pressure released, there isn’t much fuel left to drive a further drop from here.
My stance: go long on the short term, gambling on this wave of exhaustion leading to a rebound. But don’t treat the bounce as a reversal—on the 3-hour spot timeframe, large orders are still net selling. If price breaks below the 119.5 prior low and active buy orders flip back to selling, then this long thesis is void. Admit it and leave.
#aave $AAVE
But the order book is singing the opposite song: spot active buy/sell ratio is 1.95, active contract buying makes up 60%. Within an hour, direction flipped back to long, and the price has reclaimed above the 20-day moving average line. The chips being dumped aren’t going unpicked—they’re being chewed up one bite at a time by the active buy orders. Under this big bearish candle, sell pressure is already running out.
Getting positions cut by nearly 7% is actually a good thing: the long side’s leverage has been washed out about as much as possible. Floating supply is cleared, and what remains—whale positions—still has 65% leaning toward the long side. The funding rate has also turned negative, so shorts are queuing to pay. With clean turnover and pressure released, there isn’t much fuel left to drive a further drop from here.
My stance: go long on the short term, gambling on this wave of exhaustion leading to a rebound. But don’t treat the bounce as a reversal—on the 3-hour spot timeframe, large orders are still net selling. If price breaks below the 119.5 prior low and active buy orders flip back to selling, then this long thesis is void. Admit it and leave.
#aave $AAVE
