$SOXS 24 hours up 3.653%, at 51.07, funding 0.00091841 is positive. Trump’s trade pressure is weighing on semiconductors, and this tool that’s short semiconductors is benefiting from this move, but the longs in the market are already squeezing out sweat.
Positive funding means the longs pay the shorts, and the price is still moving higher—typical of chasing by the long side. OI of 390k is just sitting there. Anyone who rushes in now is basically paying the funding cost for the people who went in earlier. Everyone can see Trump’s suppression of chip stocks, but the problem is that this bearish thesis has already been priced in.
Strong counter-evidence: If Trump’s side comes out with a slightly reassuring tone, semiconductors can rebound for a day. The SOXS short—short semiconductors—will retreat very quickly, and people who chased will not even recoup the funding cost.
I don’t bet on news; I only trust structure.
Action: Don’t chase at this level. If SOXS breaks below 51.07, I assume the longs are starting to withdraw and I’ll cut longs directly. If it holds above 51 and continues to trade with volume, wait for a pullback that doesn’t break, then try again—but keep position size small. When funding is positive, the carrying cost really is being deducted.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SOXS
Where do you think this set of judgment is most likely to be wrong?
Positive funding means the longs pay the shorts, and the price is still moving higher—typical of chasing by the long side. OI of 390k is just sitting there. Anyone who rushes in now is basically paying the funding cost for the people who went in earlier. Everyone can see Trump’s suppression of chip stocks, but the problem is that this bearish thesis has already been priced in.
Strong counter-evidence: If Trump’s side comes out with a slightly reassuring tone, semiconductors can rebound for a day. The SOXS short—short semiconductors—will retreat very quickly, and people who chased will not even recoup the funding cost.
I don’t bet on news; I only trust structure.
Action: Don’t chase at this level. If SOXS breaks below 51.07, I assume the longs are starting to withdraw and I’ll cut longs directly. If it holds above 51 and continues to trade with volume, wait for a pullback that doesn’t break, then try again—but keep position size small. When funding is positive, the carrying cost really is being deducted.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SOXS
Where do you think this set of judgment is most likely to be wrong?