$SOXS 24 24 hours up 3.65%, price 51.07, funding 0.00091841. Longs are paying shorts; this leg is already getting crowded. If Trump simply tightens the chip policy a bit, US stock semiconductors will drop, and SOXS can triple the move in the opposite direction.
I decide not to chase. Up 3.65% plus a positive funding rate—those who chase later hold costs and pay rent to the shorts; moving sideways will feel bad. Old dog is waiting for a trap created by repeated expectations of Trump’s policy being hammered down—not this current red candle.
Counterpoint: funding 0.00091841 hasn’t reached an extreme level yet. OI 390766.66 is still alive, meaning the positions haven’t dispersed. This straight-up move is also normal. Shorts haven’t been broken; they’re just being kept under pressure and forced to pay fees.
Second order: when the funding rate is high, shorts make a profit every time they settle. That profit will be used to suppress the next rebound. The longer longs hold on for another day, the more ammunition the opponent gets for the next push.
Action: if it retraces near 51 and doesn’t break, I’ll try to go long. If it breaks below 51 and funding turns negative, I’ll retreat. I’m not going long by chasing here.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SOXS
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
I decide not to chase. Up 3.65% plus a positive funding rate—those who chase later hold costs and pay rent to the shorts; moving sideways will feel bad. Old dog is waiting for a trap created by repeated expectations of Trump’s policy being hammered down—not this current red candle.
Counterpoint: funding 0.00091841 hasn’t reached an extreme level yet. OI 390766.66 is still alive, meaning the positions haven’t dispersed. This straight-up move is also normal. Shorts haven’t been broken; they’re just being kept under pressure and forced to pay fees.
Second order: when the funding rate is high, shorts make a profit every time they settle. That profit will be used to suppress the next rebound. The longer longs hold on for another day, the more ammunition the opponent gets for the next push.
Action: if it retraces near 51 and doesn’t break, I’ll try to go long. If it breaks below 51 and funding turns negative, I’ll retreat. I’m not going long by chasing here.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SOXS
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?