$SKDD 24 hours dropped 2.461%, with the price pinned at 9.91. Old dog skimmed the data—what’s most striking isn’t the drop, it’s that the funding rate is steadily sitting at 0.00000000, and the open interest still stands at 12111.67. This combination isn’t common among US stock contracts on the TRADIFI_PERPETUAL chain: the price is falling, positions aren’t shrinking, and the funding rate stays flat. That means neither the long side nor the short side wants to pay first and admit defeat.
My take is very direct: $SKDD isn’t in a trending position right now—it’s in a liquidation standoff. The 2.461% drop is too small to force either side to cut losses, but it’s also just about hanging near the 9.91 integer level, not falling deep and not bouncing either. Over the last 24 hours, the trading volume is 260564.5863. Paired with a position size of a bit over 12k, that suggests turnover is sufficient, but directional funding hasn’t entered the market. A funding rate at zero in derivatives usually means one of two things: either the market is completely undivided in opinion, or both sides are waiting for the other to move first. I think it’s the latter.
The strongest counterpoint also needs to be stated clearly. Some will argue that a zero funding rate means longs and shorts are balanced, and that stable open interest means long-term funds haven’t pulled out; this drop is just passive follow-through from the spot market. Old dog agrees this logic has merit, but it doesn’t explain why, with 24-hour trading volume in the $260k range, the price can’t even reclaim $10. Turnover is there, but buyers aren’t in a hurry to push the price back above the integer level. That’s evidence the demand side isn’t urgent to act. Also, since there’s no comparable secondary underlying in the same sector, this judgment can only be treated as a single signal—don’t treat it as a hard rule.
The second-order effect, in my view, shows up in liquidation timing. A zero funding rate implies long and short positioning costs are close. If price grinds lower a bit more and nears the liquidation line, longs close to liquidation will start reducing positions proactively—only then would OI start to fall noticeably. Right now it’s 12111.67. If later you see OI dropping quickly to below ten thousand while price doesn’t make new lows, that would be the signal the shorts should stop and wrap up—because the surrender is happening. Conversely, if price first moves back above 10 while OI doesn’t increase, then this bounce is short-covering, and its durability is questionable.
Old dog’s stance is light positioning for observation—no longs. If it breaks below 9.91, I’ll wait for OI to contract on reduced volume confirmation, and I won’t catch falling knives.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #SKDD #SKDDUSDT $SKDD
My take is very direct: $SKDD isn’t in a trending position right now—it’s in a liquidation standoff. The 2.461% drop is too small to force either side to cut losses, but it’s also just about hanging near the 9.91 integer level, not falling deep and not bouncing either. Over the last 24 hours, the trading volume is 260564.5863. Paired with a position size of a bit over 12k, that suggests turnover is sufficient, but directional funding hasn’t entered the market. A funding rate at zero in derivatives usually means one of two things: either the market is completely undivided in opinion, or both sides are waiting for the other to move first. I think it’s the latter.
The strongest counterpoint also needs to be stated clearly. Some will argue that a zero funding rate means longs and shorts are balanced, and that stable open interest means long-term funds haven’t pulled out; this drop is just passive follow-through from the spot market. Old dog agrees this logic has merit, but it doesn’t explain why, with 24-hour trading volume in the $260k range, the price can’t even reclaim $10. Turnover is there, but buyers aren’t in a hurry to push the price back above the integer level. That’s evidence the demand side isn’t urgent to act. Also, since there’s no comparable secondary underlying in the same sector, this judgment can only be treated as a single signal—don’t treat it as a hard rule.
The second-order effect, in my view, shows up in liquidation timing. A zero funding rate implies long and short positioning costs are close. If price grinds lower a bit more and nears the liquidation line, longs close to liquidation will start reducing positions proactively—only then would OI start to fall noticeably. Right now it’s 12111.67. If later you see OI dropping quickly to below ten thousand while price doesn’t make new lows, that would be the signal the shorts should stop and wrap up—because the surrender is happening. Conversely, if price first moves back above 10 while OI doesn’t increase, then this bounce is short-covering, and its durability is questionable.
Old dog’s stance is light positioning for observation—no longs. If it breaks below 9.91, I’ll wait for OI to contract on reduced volume confirmation, and I won’t catch falling knives.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #SKDD #SKDDUSDT $SKDD