On Sunday, the price surge broke through 78,331, and the people chasing higher on BTC are now taking over the macro “liquidity vacuum.”
As of 20:00, the latest three closed 4H candles of $BTC closed at 78,144.68, 78,118, and 78,166 respectively—everything is still below 78,331. The last candle’s high was 78,242, with a volume of 649 BTC, which is 31.5% lower than the average of the previous 5 candles and 70.9% lower than the average of the previous 20 candles. Passive buying accounts for 45.9%.
From 20:00 to 21:00, the 1H rose from 78,165.99 to 78,785.06, but this belongs to an as-yet-unclosed 4H period. It only shows that the pace suddenly accelerated; it cannot reverse the direction.
The key to capital movement lies in cross-market flows. In the most recent window of US stock cash trading, the Nasdaq fell 0.52% to close at 26,402, the US Dollar Index rose 0.53% to 99.68, and the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.8 bps to 4.720%. In the same window, $BTC fell 2.04% and $ETH fell 2.53%.
Tonight is Sunday—there’s no new open for the Nasdaq, the dollar, or US Treasuries, and spot ETF flows have no new subscription/redemption data. The only relevant catalyst is the Sunday liquidity vacuum. Treating “no new sell pressure” as “the macro environment is already turning bullish” is exactly the most expensive consensus of the weekend.
At 21:35 before the post, spot $BTC was around $78,716.68 and $ETH around $2,467.67. I’m clearly bearish on BTC: the first target is 78,331, and the second target is 78,166. Sunday’s push higher will be treated as an unconfirmed retracement bounce. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #宏观联动
In the comments, I’ll place one bet: will the 4H close before midnight above 78,331, or will it first dip back to 78,331?
Only invalidation condition: $BTC ’s 4H candle body has closed and is standing above 78,331.
As of 20:00, the latest three closed 4H candles of $BTC closed at 78,144.68, 78,118, and 78,166 respectively—everything is still below 78,331. The last candle’s high was 78,242, with a volume of 649 BTC, which is 31.5% lower than the average of the previous 5 candles and 70.9% lower than the average of the previous 20 candles. Passive buying accounts for 45.9%.
From 20:00 to 21:00, the 1H rose from 78,165.99 to 78,785.06, but this belongs to an as-yet-unclosed 4H period. It only shows that the pace suddenly accelerated; it cannot reverse the direction.
The key to capital movement lies in cross-market flows. In the most recent window of US stock cash trading, the Nasdaq fell 0.52% to close at 26,402, the US Dollar Index rose 0.53% to 99.68, and the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.8 bps to 4.720%. In the same window, $BTC fell 2.04% and $ETH fell 2.53%.
Tonight is Sunday—there’s no new open for the Nasdaq, the dollar, or US Treasuries, and spot ETF flows have no new subscription/redemption data. The only relevant catalyst is the Sunday liquidity vacuum. Treating “no new sell pressure” as “the macro environment is already turning bullish” is exactly the most expensive consensus of the weekend.
At 21:35 before the post, spot $BTC was around $78,716.68 and $ETH around $2,467.67. I’m clearly bearish on BTC: the first target is 78,331, and the second target is 78,166. Sunday’s push higher will be treated as an unconfirmed retracement bounce. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #宏观联动
In the comments, I’ll place one bet: will the 4H close before midnight above 78,331, or will it first dip back to 78,331?
Only invalidation condition: $BTC ’s 4H candle body has closed and is standing above 78,331.