MSTR contract price is 130.74, up 2.549% over the past 24 hours. This rebound doesn’t have any news catalyst to back it up. At the crypto summit, Trump only provided one piece of information: the U.S. is still reviewing its purchase of Bitcoin. He didn’t offer a mechanism or a timeline. For a Bitcoin-treasury company like MSTR, the external incremental demand depends on exactly this—so without it being implemented, there’s nothing to land.
The Yahoo item is even more troublesome. MSTR is being reviewed to see whether it should be removed from global stock indexes. If that happens, the logic behind passive allocation could loosen. CNN’s data is direct: MSTR’s previous close fell by $10.36, down 7.54%. It opened at 134.13. The combination of index review and the crypto pullback produced the result.
The bulls have a counterpoint: Robinhood reported that Canaccord raised its target price and newly set 2.0 billion in liquidity, so some people are buying above 130. But the funding rate is positive at 0.00030773—meaning those chasing longs are paying the cost, and longs are crowded. When price rises, funding is positive too. The structure of chasing higher isn’t a bottom reversal.
My view is that the rebound above 130 is just short-covering during a news vacuum plus the tug-of-war before the index review. The real deciding factors are whether Trump’s purchase plan gets implemented, and whether MSTR will be removed from the index.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MSTR
Where do you think this set of conclusions is most likely to be wrong?
The Yahoo item is even more troublesome. MSTR is being reviewed to see whether it should be removed from global stock indexes. If that happens, the logic behind passive allocation could loosen. CNN’s data is direct: MSTR’s previous close fell by $10.36, down 7.54%. It opened at 134.13. The combination of index review and the crypto pullback produced the result.
The bulls have a counterpoint: Robinhood reported that Canaccord raised its target price and newly set 2.0 billion in liquidity, so some people are buying above 130. But the funding rate is positive at 0.00030773—meaning those chasing longs are paying the cost, and longs are crowded. When price rises, funding is positive too. The structure of chasing higher isn’t a bottom reversal.
My view is that the rebound above 130 is just short-covering during a news vacuum plus the tug-of-war before the index review. The real deciding factors are whether Trump’s purchase plan gets implemented, and whether MSTR will be removed from the index.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MSTR
Where do you think this set of conclusions is most likely to be wrong?