BlockBeats news: On August 30, according to CME “FedWatch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in September is currently 43%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 57%.

Previously, on Friday evening in Jackson Hole, Waller’s speech was more hawkish than market expectations. Waller said that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is falling “at a clearly and sufficiently fast pace” back to 2%, the Federal Reserve “still has work to do.” This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed could raise rates next.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting in September, there will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report and a CPI inflation report, along with some other smaller data releases in between. Given that recent U.S. employment reports have failed to meet expectations and the gaps have been substantial, any further signals of weakness could severely undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.