I left the Hong Kong crypto conference in full swing a bit early and want to share the most straightforward impressions. Compared with the industry mega-events of the past two years—the kind with nonstop crowds and a carnival atmosphere full of stories—this year the whole conference is clearly more subdued. The number of attending institutions and professionals isn’t small, but throughout the event there’s a lack of eye-opening new narratives. On stage, the speakers repeatedly discuss the usual topics: RWA (real-world assets), stablecoin compliance, and institutional entry—again and again. Truly grounded innovations that are genuinely disruptive are rare. During the offline coffee breaks and cocktail meetups, people are also no longer talking as if they can just open their mouths and become 100x rich; more conversations are about risk control, compliance boundaries, and survival strategies. The feverish bubble is gradually being squeezed out, and the industry is shifting from noisy fantasy back to pragmatic survival reality. But a decline in excitement doesn’t mean opportunities have disappeared—it just means there’s no more era of winning by blindly “lying down” with eyes closed. Every opportunity now requires us to cut through the fog and carefully verify what’s real.
It was also during the meeting that gossip swept through both inside and outside the circle in an instant, and Sun Ge’s mini-essay racked up over ten million views in 24 hours. Uncle Three has to admire Sun Ge’s time management—because half an hour before his mini-essay was posted, he was still on stage talking at length. But no matter what, gossip is ultimately just something everyone discusses over dinner. Look at it, and let it pass. I admire Sun Ge’s marketing ability, but I do not approve of turning personal privacy into personal attacks, and taking it to the extent of ruining someone’s future. Dignity should be the gentlest farewell between two people who once truly loved each other, turning away from each other.
“The scattered flowers seem to blur one’s eyes, and only shallow grass can stay untrampled by hooves”—applied to the crypto market right now, it’s more fitting than ever. The noise around you, trending topics and gossip, and the temptation of short-term K-line moves, like flowers blooming everywhere, can easily shake people’s vision. But the real foundation of a market trend is often still in the early stage, like shallow grass just sprouting. In the end, the market gets noisy because volatility rises. But what Uncle Three wants to say is that market volatility—or even the warming of a bull-market atmosphere—doesn’t necessarily have much to do with our wallets yet.
This week, the Bitcoin spot ETF ended nine consecutive trading days of net inflows on Friday. The week’s net inflows totaled $924 million, of which Friday saw net outflows of $202 million. The Ethereum spot ETF currently has net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days; the total net inflows this week amounted to $824 million. BlackRock’s IBIT has remained at the top of the funds-flow leaderboard, with steady institutional buying pushing this round of fast market rebound. Market sentiment has been fully ignited, and many retail investors have started shouting that the big bull market is officially back.
The Friday data showing net outflows of $202 million for Bitcoin contains a brutal truth: institutions are not always net longs. When they enter, they mean it; when they take profits and leave, that also is real. Multi-day net inflows have given the market extremely strong bullish expectations, but a large net outflow in a single day directly douses the hot market with a bucket of cold water. K33 institutions once did historical replays: in the past, Bitcoin in extremely short periods repeatedly regained key moving averages like the 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and even 200-week lines. When similar setups appeared historically, they were mostly near the start of bull markets. But history can only rhyme, never simply repeat. Past-cycle experience can only serve as reference, not as a certain belief in guaranteed victory.
Bernstein offers a very optimistic medium- to long-term outlook, arguing that in a high-debt environment, downward pressure on the dollar will continue to benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin, and it provides price projections for the future of $150,000 and $300,000. But everyone should be clear: this is a long-term logic over a multi-year horizon. Along the way, there will be countless deep pullbacks and violent shakeouts; it will not be a straight line climbing higher. BlackRock also suggests that the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has continued to decline, with its characteristics shifting toward macro-hedging assets like gold. This means that going forward, every statement from the Fed and every piece of inflation data will directly stir up the coin’s price—big rallies and big drops will become the market norm.
Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference becomes the biggest macro variable of the week. Wach’s remarks are unmistakably hawkish in tone; he said inflation data has not seen any significant improvement, and the Fed will remain steadfast in pushing toward its 2% inflation target, with policy steps needing to be clear enough. One speech instantly changed sentiment across global risk assets. On Friday, the U.S. stock Nasdaq index weakened during the session, gold plunged sharply, and the crypto market followed with a synchronized pullback. Many friends wonder: with ETF inflows propping up the crypto market, why can’t it withstand the Fed’s one speech? The logic is simple—no matter how much we emphasize the scarcity of crypto assets, they still can’t escape the global liquidity framework. When expectations for tighter liquidity rise, no matter how good the narrative sounds, it can’t stop the instinct of funds seeking safety and exiting.
Regulation is also a mixed bag. The SEC has submitted a proposal for crypto asset custody rules to the White House for review. It plans to phase out a batch of outdated custody requirements and also looks to open some channels for token public financing, setting funding limits for early-stage projects. However, the (CLARITY) bill that the industry truly hopes for is still stuck in the congressional process, and near-term prospects for passage are bleak. On the other side, 39 U.S. state bank associations have jointly formed the BankChain alliance, planning to launch their own blockchain network in 2027. Traditional banks are also accelerating their plans for the stablecoin track. Convergence of traditional finance toward the crypto world is a long-term trend, but it’s a slow-moving factor—it won’t directly ignite a big market rally within just a few weeks. Geopolitical risk also can’t be taken lightly. Negotiations related to the Strait of Hormuz are still being played out, oil supply risks haven’t been fully eliminated, and the seeds of black swan events remain buried in the market.
At this point, the market stands at a crossroads of contradictions. On one side are institutional funds that had been continuously flowing in through ETFs, expectations of improved regulatory margins, and the allocation logic for scarce assets; on the other side are stubborn inflation, a hawkish policy stance from the Fed, and the pressure brought by broad weakness in risk assets around the world. After a few green days lift things up, countless people can’t restrain their inner restlessness, thinking the bottom-fishing window has arrived, fearing missing out on this rally, rushing to go all in with heavy positions.
Uncle Three has long emphasized that missing the market is never the biggest risk; going in too early and getting stopped out halfway up the mountain is what causes most people to lose money. “A gentleman’s conduct is to know when to stop, and then there will be steadiness.” The most precious ability in trading is knowing when to pause and observe. A rebound doesn’t equal a trend reversal. With bulls and bears battling to the extreme right now, there’s selling pressure overhead and support underneath—just one random piece of news can trigger sharp swings up and down.
Uncle Three also doesn’t deny that there is a possibility of an upside reversal. But it absolutely shouldn’t be approached with a gambler’s mindset, charging in no matter what. Keep your core holdings (the bottom positions) in hand—you can follow the market’s back-and-forth—but under no circumstances should you bet everything on a short-term rebound.
There’s never a shortage of stories in the circle, never a shortage of hot topics, and never a shortage of legends about getting rich overnight. Gossip is for you to watch; you can observe the market too—but your principal is what truly keeps you alive in this market. There’s always another bus for the market. Once your principal is wiped out, you no longer have a seat on the bus.
Back to the screen:
BTC: The BTC high has temporarily capped at 81,500 points, just one step away from our first reversal confirmation point. This Saturday, trading volume returned directly to what it was about half a month ago. On the hourly chart, BTC is almost flat in a straight line. The part of the profit-taking positions from Friday that rotated into other holdings has already signaled that uncertainty about the short-term outlook may increase. On the trend level, Uncle Three believes there should be at least one trend confirmation near 69,000 points. On the upside, what we still need to watch for is the reversal confirmation around 82,500 points. In the bull-bear rotation cycle—if there is another drop—then what we are facing now is the most ruthless bear-market hunting. For operations, it is still recommended to take profits and rotate near the $80,000 range, then wait for a new bottom confirmation point.
Altcoin momentum-linked pullbacks have been extremely violent; in the medium to long term, it’s not recommended to pay attention to them anymore. During a BTC pullback phase, before the reversal signal is confirmed, what we still need to watch are the major exchange tokens: in a bull market cycle, exchange tokens and the platforms move in sync as they grow and mature. As for the other altcoins—whether they have narratives or not—they need to gradually distance themselves.
Fear and Greed Index at 77 intraday (Greed).#比特币现货ETF结束9日净流入 $BTC
