When hawkish big shots speak, Bitcoin drops straight below 77,000
On Thursday it even touched the weekly high of 81,455, but by Friday it was beaten back to where it started—falling to a low of 76,877, wiping out 2.5% in a single day
Who’s to blame? The Fed’s new chief, Warsh, made his Jackson Hole debut
He came out right away with hawkish remarks, saying the central bank still has work to do and that the prior set of forward guidance is outdated
The probability of rate hikes jumped on the spot from 35% to over 50%—US Treasury yields shot up, and even gold sagged along with it
As a risk asset, Bitcoin naturally was the first to be knocked down
To make matters worse, the ETF side also “crashed”: the good days of 9 straight days of net inflows came to an abrupt end. On Friday there was a single-day net outflow of $202 million
But don’t rush to sing the doomsday song—overall August is still seeing net inflows of more than $3 billion. This move looks more like a breather after a rally ran too hot
From a technical perspective, support is in the 76,800–77,000 area, while resistance is near 79,500–80,300
RSI is already at 70, so the short term is indeed a bit overheated. But MACD is still holding a bullish posture—the trend hasn’t broken
Since August 15, Bitcoin has gained 23% cumulatively. At most, it’s high-level consolidation, not a trend reversal
What’s interesting is that hawkish talk happens every year, but there’s been an unusually large amount this year
Every time a big figure opens their mouth, the market puts on a coordinated nosedive—but if you truly get scared and run, you often end up selling out at the bottom
Looking back, the engine behind this upswing was the Treasury ramping up US Treasury buybacks, plus a warm policy backdrop. None of those fundamentals changed—the only thing that changed was short-term sentiment
In the comments, let’s talk: with this pullback, are you planning to buy the dip, or wait and see?
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