The excuse of “options expiration” is no longer valid, and those who bought the BTC dip are still paying the bill for the $80k mark.
At 16:00 Beijing time on August 28, Deribit’s monthly BTC options expired according to the official rules. The settlement price was $79,682.33; market reports indicate that about $6.4 billion worth of positions and 81,700 contracts (8.17万张) exited.
Square and X turned the idea that “$80k is just the options pin price” into the main narrative, but what truly changes the positioning logic comes after expiration: once the price loses the pull of the old positions, it still hasn’t repaired upward.
After expiration, the next six 4H candles that closed in sequence settled at 79,604.13, 78,331.13, 77,580.03, 77,845.87, 77,507.17, and 77,626.01— all below the settlement price. The last two candles’ bodies are also pressing below 77,845.87. The newly formed 16:00 K-line does not participate in any reversal.
Funds haven’t returned either: the latest 4H spot trading volume is 1,664 BTC, down 44.4% versus the average volume of the previous 5 candles, and down 46.0% versus the average of the previous 20 candles. The share of aggressive buy orders is 49.7%. During the same period, $ETH closed at 2,436.41, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell from 0.03141 to 0.03138.
Trapped are the longs who treated options expiration as a must-go-up switch and re-entered during a weak pullback.
The only hot point is this month’s monthly options expiration: the old hedging positions have already exited, and the weakness below $80k can’t be pushed onto “pinning pressure before expiration” anymore. At 19:05 before publication, $BTC was about $77,652.13 and $ETH about $2,434.84. I’m explicitly bearish on BTC: first target 77,256, second target 76,888. For market commentary only and not investment advice.#BTC #期权到期
In the comments, pick only one: Will 77,256 break first, or will the retest hit 77,846 first?
The only invalidation condition: $BTC has closed a 4H candle back above 77,846.
At 16:00 Beijing time on August 28, Deribit’s monthly BTC options expired according to the official rules. The settlement price was $79,682.33; market reports indicate that about $6.4 billion worth of positions and 81,700 contracts (8.17万张) exited.
Square and X turned the idea that “$80k is just the options pin price” into the main narrative, but what truly changes the positioning logic comes after expiration: once the price loses the pull of the old positions, it still hasn’t repaired upward.
After expiration, the next six 4H candles that closed in sequence settled at 79,604.13, 78,331.13, 77,580.03, 77,845.87, 77,507.17, and 77,626.01— all below the settlement price. The last two candles’ bodies are also pressing below 77,845.87. The newly formed 16:00 K-line does not participate in any reversal.
Funds haven’t returned either: the latest 4H spot trading volume is 1,664 BTC, down 44.4% versus the average volume of the previous 5 candles, and down 46.0% versus the average of the previous 20 candles. The share of aggressive buy orders is 49.7%. During the same period, $ETH closed at 2,436.41, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell from 0.03141 to 0.03138.
Trapped are the longs who treated options expiration as a must-go-up switch and re-entered during a weak pullback.
The only hot point is this month’s monthly options expiration: the old hedging positions have already exited, and the weakness below $80k can’t be pushed onto “pinning pressure before expiration” anymore. At 19:05 before publication, $BTC was about $77,652.13 and $ETH about $2,434.84. I’m explicitly bearish on BTC: first target 77,256, second target 76,888. For market commentary only and not investment advice.#BTC #期权到期
In the comments, pick only one: Will 77,256 break first, or will the retest hit 77,846 first?
The only invalidation condition: $BTC has closed a 4H candle back above 77,846.