After the Federal Reserve meeting in June, rate-hike expectations rose and interest rates went up—but on that day, US stocks were up. Later, there was a pullback in July. Since stocks rose that day, many people believed that Waller was dovish. Today at JACKSON HOLE, when Waller spoke, rates rose and rate-hike expectations increased. US stocks rose today, then fell—so the market began to panic about hikes, feeling that Waller had turned hawkish. This is how the news market works: a result-driven logic that sounds very reasonable.
I won’t get into whether Waller would raise rates before midterm elections (he is against the Fed taking sensitive actions before political events). For now, the inflation data does not support entering a rate-hiking cycle, and it’s very different from 2022. Also, I believe that the stronger factor in today’s macro environment is Bessent’s intervention in the FX market and long-term bonds—their power and determination—and that’s the main storyline. Outside of macro, the most important thing is that the valuation of SOX is low. #沃什称通胀是美联储首要关注
I won’t get into whether Waller would raise rates before midterm elections (he is against the Fed taking sensitive actions before political events). For now, the inflation data does not support entering a rate-hiking cycle, and it’s very different from 2022. Also, I believe that the stronger factor in today’s macro environment is Bessent’s intervention in the FX market and long-term bonds—their power and determination—and that’s the main storyline. Outside of macro, the most important thing is that the valuation of SOX is low. #沃什称通胀是美联储首要关注