Will Bitcoin go up even more?
First, the conclusion: yes, brother!
Last night, Powell’s remarks reinforced expectations of rate hikes. The most direct effect of a rate hike is that market liquidity decreases. So last night, whether it was the crypto market or the U.S. stock market, everything collectively turned down.
The impact of rate-hike expectations caused Bitcoin to drop from 80k to 77k. You can see how significant its influence really is.
For the crypto market: in the short term, it’s driven by sentiment; in the medium term, by capital; and in the long term, by narratives. Rate hikes are at least a medium-term level of impact.
But even more than the medium-term effect is the long-term one—Bitcoin’s biggest long-term narrative: the halving. $BTC The supply is halved, meaning selling pressure decreases. For miners, however, the mining cost effectively doubles.
If Bitcoin has fundamentals, then mining cost is part of its fundamentals. From that perspective, Bitcoin must rise. Current mining costs are around 60,000 USD; after the halving, the cost is at least 120,000 USD.
So in this bull cycle, Bitcoin is conservatively 150,000 USD, and a high of 200,000 USD isn’t impossible. But to reach those prices, the process will be tough.
You might think this is pointless—when the market isn’t doing great, confidence matters more.
First, you have to learn to see it—because only once you see it can you do it! #比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元
First, the conclusion: yes, brother!
Last night, Powell’s remarks reinforced expectations of rate hikes. The most direct effect of a rate hike is that market liquidity decreases. So last night, whether it was the crypto market or the U.S. stock market, everything collectively turned down.
The impact of rate-hike expectations caused Bitcoin to drop from 80k to 77k. You can see how significant its influence really is.
For the crypto market: in the short term, it’s driven by sentiment; in the medium term, by capital; and in the long term, by narratives. Rate hikes are at least a medium-term level of impact.
But even more than the medium-term effect is the long-term one—Bitcoin’s biggest long-term narrative: the halving. $BTC The supply is halved, meaning selling pressure decreases. For miners, however, the mining cost effectively doubles.
If Bitcoin has fundamentals, then mining cost is part of its fundamentals. From that perspective, Bitcoin must rise. Current mining costs are around 60,000 USD; after the halving, the cost is at least 120,000 USD.
So in this bull cycle, Bitcoin is conservatively 150,000 USD, and a high of 200,000 USD isn’t impossible. But to reach those prices, the process will be tough.
You might think this is pointless—when the market isn’t doing great, confidence matters more.
First, you have to learn to see it—because only once you see it can you do it! #比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元
