Last night, Waish said a lot. Put into plain language, it’s basically one line: if inflation doesn’t get back toward 2%, the Fed still has to keep working. The U.S. economy hasn’t fallen apart—jobs are still holding up, and economic growth is still bearing up. Even AI investment is strong. With interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, the economy hasn’t been meaningfully dragged down, so there’s naturally no big reason for the Fed to rush to turn dovish. If inflation keeps sticking around like this, rate hikes are still on the table.
Waish also pushed back against the market’s earlier idea that “rate hikes are basically over.” In the short term, that’s definitely not comfortable for U.S. stocks or BTC. When Treasury yields and the dollar move up, high-valuation tech stocks and crypto both get pressed. But this time it’s different from the kind of selloff driven by recession fears: the economy itself isn’t bad. Waish even personally looks favorably on the AI storyline, so I think it’s more about killing valuations than killing the underlying logic.
Going forward, just watch inflation and employment. If jobs stay firm and inflation keeps sticking, expectations for further rate hikes won’t go away. But when inflation finally starts to clearly trend down, U.S. stocks and BTC are actually the ones most likely to run ahead first.
Waish also pushed back against the market’s earlier idea that “rate hikes are basically over.” In the short term, that’s definitely not comfortable for U.S. stocks or BTC. When Treasury yields and the dollar move up, high-valuation tech stocks and crypto both get pressed. But this time it’s different from the kind of selloff driven by recession fears: the economy itself isn’t bad. Waish even personally looks favorably on the AI storyline, so I think it’s more about killing valuations than killing the underlying logic.
Going forward, just watch inflation and employment. If jobs stay firm and inflation keeps sticking, expectations for further rate hikes won’t go away. But when inflation finally starts to clearly trend down, U.S. stocks and BTC are actually the ones most likely to run ahead first.