After $BTC broke through the two-level targets, the bottom-catchers only got a low-volume pullback.
At 20:00 and 00:00, two consecutive 4H down candles closed at 78331.13 and 77580.03, respectively—continuously breaking below yesterday’s targets of 79001 and 78546. By 08:00, the latest completed 4H candle opened from 77580.03, peaked at 77846.72, bottomed at 77255.69, and closed at 77845.87—still not reclaiming 78331. The newly opened 4H does not participate in any directional reversal.
Capital didn’t follow the price to pull back: the spot trading volumes of the first two down 4H candles were 5428 and 4755 BTC, while the latest rebound was only 1595 BTC—56.1% lower than the average of the past 5 candles, and 46.2% lower than the average of the past 20. Aggressive buy orders accounted for 48.0%. ETH/BTC also slipped from 0.03155 to 0.03139. Even though $ETH ’s latest 4H closed at 2442.80, it failed to form replacement-style bullish strength. Trapped are the longs that mistook the loss of 78546 as a false break and re-entered during this weak pullback.
The only relevant catalyst was the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Warsh last night Beijing time at 22:00: he said broad financial conditions are hard to define as tightening. 12-month PCE inflation was 3.7%, and 6-month was 4.1%; the policy’s current focus should be on prices. After the interest-rate constraints were repriced, BTC’s next two high-volume 4H candles confirmed the downside break.
As of 08:04 before publication, $BTC spot was around $77820.00 and $ETH around $2444.00. I am clearly bearish on BTC: first target 77256, second target 76888; any pullback below 78331 should be treated as a pressure test. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #Market Watch
In the comments, people are betting on a path: will it break 77256 first, or pull back to 78331 first?
Only invalidation condition: if $BTC ’s 4H candle close with a real body is back above 78331.
At 20:00 and 00:00, two consecutive 4H down candles closed at 78331.13 and 77580.03, respectively—continuously breaking below yesterday’s targets of 79001 and 78546. By 08:00, the latest completed 4H candle opened from 77580.03, peaked at 77846.72, bottomed at 77255.69, and closed at 77845.87—still not reclaiming 78331. The newly opened 4H does not participate in any directional reversal.
Capital didn’t follow the price to pull back: the spot trading volumes of the first two down 4H candles were 5428 and 4755 BTC, while the latest rebound was only 1595 BTC—56.1% lower than the average of the past 5 candles, and 46.2% lower than the average of the past 20. Aggressive buy orders accounted for 48.0%. ETH/BTC also slipped from 0.03155 to 0.03139. Even though $ETH ’s latest 4H closed at 2442.80, it failed to form replacement-style bullish strength. Trapped are the longs that mistook the loss of 78546 as a false break and re-entered during this weak pullback.
The only relevant catalyst was the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Warsh last night Beijing time at 22:00: he said broad financial conditions are hard to define as tightening. 12-month PCE inflation was 3.7%, and 6-month was 4.1%; the policy’s current focus should be on prices. After the interest-rate constraints were repriced, BTC’s next two high-volume 4H candles confirmed the downside break.
As of 08:04 before publication, $BTC spot was around $77820.00 and $ETH around $2444.00. I am clearly bearish on BTC: first target 77256, second target 76888; any pullback below 78331 should be treated as a pressure test. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #Market Watch
In the comments, people are betting on a path: will it break 77256 first, or pull back to 78331 first?
Only invalidation condition: if $BTC ’s 4H candle close with a real body is back above 78331.