Bearish “hawk faction” triggers the whole market; after 4600 is lost, rebound means sell!
Yesterday evening, Mu Han’s short call hit the take-profit precisely. In the debut of the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wosh Jacksons delivered a clear hawkish tone, igniting the entire market: a triple message—“the inflation target is firm, there is still work to do, and the financial conditions are not constrained (unrestricted).” This directly pushed the September rate-hike probability from 36% soaring to 50%. The U.S. dollar jumped to 99.62, the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 5bp, and gold plunged 2.88% in a single day, breaking below the 4600 key level; the low tested around 4467. The intraday $162 swing—3 to 4 times typical volatility—signals a clear one-way trend.
Intraday range is $162. The daily candle saw a long bearish move breaking through support, and the 4600 key level was completely lost. Three consecutive bearish 4-hour candles, with the Bollinger Bands’ three lines sloping downward. The high sequence shifted lower: 4696.98 → 4643 → 4629, confirming that the bearish structure is established. Gold fell 2.88% on the day. RSI has entered oversold territory; the hourly chart may need a technical rebound, but the trend is still bearish—“rebound means sell” is the main theme.
Trading plan:
On rebounds, short at 4510–4525, target 4460–4400.
If there is an effective breakdown below 4460 and the candle closes beneath it, then on a rebound at 4470, add a light-position short; targets are 4400–4350.
If 4460–4450 quickly stabilizes and the dollar falls back below 99.30, you may take a light-position short-term long to play the rebound; targets are 4510–4540. Weekend—do not hold any one-direction positions.
#黄金8月上涨约14% $XAU
Yesterday evening, Mu Han’s short call hit the take-profit precisely. In the debut of the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wosh Jacksons delivered a clear hawkish tone, igniting the entire market: a triple message—“the inflation target is firm, there is still work to do, and the financial conditions are not constrained (unrestricted).” This directly pushed the September rate-hike probability from 36% soaring to 50%. The U.S. dollar jumped to 99.62, the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 5bp, and gold plunged 2.88% in a single day, breaking below the 4600 key level; the low tested around 4467. The intraday $162 swing—3 to 4 times typical volatility—signals a clear one-way trend.
Intraday range is $162. The daily candle saw a long bearish move breaking through support, and the 4600 key level was completely lost. Three consecutive bearish 4-hour candles, with the Bollinger Bands’ three lines sloping downward. The high sequence shifted lower: 4696.98 → 4643 → 4629, confirming that the bearish structure is established. Gold fell 2.88% on the day. RSI has entered oversold territory; the hourly chart may need a technical rebound, but the trend is still bearish—“rebound means sell” is the main theme.
Trading plan:
On rebounds, short at 4510–4525, target 4460–4400.
If there is an effective breakdown below 4460 and the candle closes beneath it, then on a rebound at 4470, add a light-position short; targets are 4400–4350.
If 4460–4450 quickly stabilizes and the dollar falls back below 99.30, you may take a light-position short-term long to play the rebound; targets are 4510–4540. Weekend—do not hold any one-direction positions.
#黄金8月上涨约14% $XAU
