In the next 7 days (February 6-12), the crypto market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, and technical rebounds will not change the downward main tone. There is a high probability of a weak rebound after initial suppression, with vigilance against secondary bottom-testing and high volatility risks. Below are the core judgments and key bases.
📊 Core judgment (February 6-12)
- Bitcoin: Core range $60000-$65000, first watch for strong support at $60000, resistance on the rebound at $67000-$70000.
- Ethereum: Linked downward, key support at $1600-$1800, resistance at $2000-$2200.
- Altcoins: Greater volatility, high-leverage varieties are prone to corrections/spikes, prioritize risk aversion.
- Timing rhythm: Weak rebound in 1-3 days, return to oscillation and downward trend in 4-7 days, focus on February 9 U.S. non-farm data.
🎯 Driving factors and key points
1. Macro and capital market (main reason)
- Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations heat up, interest rate cut expectations delayed, risk assets under pressure; January non-farm data (February 9) is a significant catalyst.
- Bitcoin ETF continuous net outflow exceeding $800 million, institutions turn net sellers, confidence weakens.
- Fear and Greed Index at 22 (extreme fear), high leverage liquidations (over 430,000 people, $2.069 billion in 24 hours) trigger passive selling pressure.
2. Technology and on-chain signals
- Bitcoin daily line breaks down, weekly line continues to be bearish, RSI and MACD bear resonance.
- On-chain: 1000-10000 BTC addresses reduce holdings, futures positions decrease by 20%, liquidity contracts.
3. Key price levels and scenarios
- Support: $60,000 (November 2024 platform), $58,000 (strong technical bottom).
- Resistance: $67,000 (neckline), $70,000 (psychological level).
- Scenario 1 (base case): Rebound to $67,000 meets resistance and falls back, range-bound oscillation, probability 60%.
- Scenario 2 (pessimistic): Break below $60,000, down to $55,000-$58,000, probability 30%.
- Scenario 3 (optimistic): Non-farm exceeds expectations and is dovish, volume recovers to $70,000, probability 10%.
⚠️ Trading and risk control suggestions:
- Position: Cash ≥ 70%, remaining small positions for trial and error, leverage ≤ 1x, avoid chasing highs and lows.
- Take profit and stop loss: Long positions stop loss below $60,000; reduce positions in batches as it rebounds to $67,000-$70,000.
- Target: Prefer Bitcoin spot, avoid high leverage altcoins, be cautious of liquidity risks.
- Time window: Increased volatility around February 9 non-farm data, reduce positions or observe in advance.
