Bitcoin and Gold Suddenly Become Conjoined Twins
The latest report from exchange analysts shows the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has surged to an unusually high level
The logic behind it is called a “devaluation trade.” As U.S. debt keeps rolling over and growing, the Treasury increases its buyback scale. The market starts to panic, and money flows into assets that can hedge against devaluation.
Gold is the traditional safe haven; Bitcoin is the digital version—and with even higher volatility, essentially a high-beta version.
Model reading: 2.03, approaching the bull-market zone starting threshold of 2.5. Analysts believe this marks the beginning of the bull market’s expansion phase, not the top.
But don’t get too excited yet. The new Fed chair turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, emphasizing that the inflation target hasn’t been reached—hinting that rate hikes may be coming.
A rate hike is the enemy of the devaluation trade. On one side, the Treasury is flooding liquidity; on the other, the central bank is signaling rate hikes. Two forces are tugging at the rope.
My view: Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. The narrative that U.S. Treasuries reach $40 trillion is, in the short term, hard to dismiss. The devaluation-hedge logic holds up.
However, correlation that’s too strong carries risks too. The day the market goes broadly “risk off,” will Bitcoin hedge alongside gold—or will it dive along with stocks? That’s the key test.
Previously, when gold rose, Bitcoin didn’t; now it moves up and down together. This suggests investors truly are buying Bitcoin as they would gold.
Next, we’ll see whether it can withstand the move if the Fed genuinely raises rates.
Do you think Bitcoin is more like gold right now—or more like a tech stock? Discuss in the comments.
Click the avatar to watch the livestream
Every day, I’ll take you to track Bitcoin hot topics—not just what’s happening in the news, but also how to understand the underlying logic and opportunities 👉🦖
#比特币 #gold
The latest report from exchange analysts shows the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has surged to an unusually high level
The logic behind it is called a “devaluation trade.” As U.S. debt keeps rolling over and growing, the Treasury increases its buyback scale. The market starts to panic, and money flows into assets that can hedge against devaluation.
Gold is the traditional safe haven; Bitcoin is the digital version—and with even higher volatility, essentially a high-beta version.
Model reading: 2.03, approaching the bull-market zone starting threshold of 2.5. Analysts believe this marks the beginning of the bull market’s expansion phase, not the top.
But don’t get too excited yet. The new Fed chair turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, emphasizing that the inflation target hasn’t been reached—hinting that rate hikes may be coming.
A rate hike is the enemy of the devaluation trade. On one side, the Treasury is flooding liquidity; on the other, the central bank is signaling rate hikes. Two forces are tugging at the rope.
My view: Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. The narrative that U.S. Treasuries reach $40 trillion is, in the short term, hard to dismiss. The devaluation-hedge logic holds up.
However, correlation that’s too strong carries risks too. The day the market goes broadly “risk off,” will Bitcoin hedge alongside gold—or will it dive along with stocks? That’s the key test.
Previously, when gold rose, Bitcoin didn’t; now it moves up and down together. This suggests investors truly are buying Bitcoin as they would gold.
Next, we’ll see whether it can withstand the move if the Fed genuinely raises rates.
Do you think Bitcoin is more like gold right now—or more like a tech stock? Discuss in the comments.
Click the avatar to watch the livestream
Every day, I’ll take you to track Bitcoin hot topics—not just what’s happening in the news, but also how to understand the underlying logic and opportunities 👉🦖
#比特币 #gold
