Summary of Kevin Walsh’s remarks yesterday:
Last night’s comments from Kevin Walsh essentially poured a bucket of cold water over the bulls in the market.
The core logic of the entire speech is very straightforward: inflation is still far from the 2% target, yet employment and consumption data are unusually robust.
As long as the real economy hasn’t shown signs of a stall and a crash, the Federal Reserve still has absolute initiative, and there is no real motivation to immediately pivot and “open the taps.”
What’s especially thought-provoking is the line, “If inflation can’t clearly and quickly trend downward, the Fed still has work to do.”
This kind of classic central-bank phrasing effectively puts options back on the table—namely extending the high-rate cycle further, and even not ruling out raising the threshold again.
He didn’t explicitly lock the next move to a rate hike, but this kind of wording that leaves room for maneuver—by itself—is a highly intimidating way to manage expectations.
Although he mentioned how AI can improve long-term productivity, and he also acknowledged that the labor market and credit system remain solid, from the perspective of liquidity trading, the notion that “the economy hasn’t broken down and employment is too strong” becomes the biggest original sin for risky assets.
Since the real economy hasn’t shown signs of a stall and crash, the Fed’s initiative remains rock solid—there’s simply no realistic impetus to pivot to easing right away.
The sharp tremors in both on-chain activity and the secondary market last night are actually logically consistent.
Crypto assets are, in essence, a sensitive amplifier of global liquidity premium.
When expectations for macro funding costs are forcibly pushed higher, the risk appetite of incremental marginal capital instantly falls to zero. In the liquidity haze, highly leveraged positions naturally have no choice but to dump first to hedge.
Macro capital markets are waiting for rate cuts, and the crypto market is waiting for liquidity to be released. But the Fed officials’ bottom line is whether the data confirms it. As long as the data hasn’t broken, any pricing based on wishful thinking will ultimately be taught a hard lesson by real yields.
In this situation, as long as inflation data shows so much as a minor reversal, the market’s pain period is far from over. $BTC
#沃什称通胀是美联储首要关注
Last night’s comments from Kevin Walsh essentially poured a bucket of cold water over the bulls in the market.
The core logic of the entire speech is very straightforward: inflation is still far from the 2% target, yet employment and consumption data are unusually robust.
As long as the real economy hasn’t shown signs of a stall and a crash, the Federal Reserve still has absolute initiative, and there is no real motivation to immediately pivot and “open the taps.”
What’s especially thought-provoking is the line, “If inflation can’t clearly and quickly trend downward, the Fed still has work to do.”
This kind of classic central-bank phrasing effectively puts options back on the table—namely extending the high-rate cycle further, and even not ruling out raising the threshold again.
He didn’t explicitly lock the next move to a rate hike, but this kind of wording that leaves room for maneuver—by itself—is a highly intimidating way to manage expectations.
Although he mentioned how AI can improve long-term productivity, and he also acknowledged that the labor market and credit system remain solid, from the perspective of liquidity trading, the notion that “the economy hasn’t broken down and employment is too strong” becomes the biggest original sin for risky assets.
Since the real economy hasn’t shown signs of a stall and crash, the Fed’s initiative remains rock solid—there’s simply no realistic impetus to pivot to easing right away.
The sharp tremors in both on-chain activity and the secondary market last night are actually logically consistent.
Crypto assets are, in essence, a sensitive amplifier of global liquidity premium.
When expectations for macro funding costs are forcibly pushed higher, the risk appetite of incremental marginal capital instantly falls to zero. In the liquidity haze, highly leveraged positions naturally have no choice but to dump first to hedge.
Macro capital markets are waiting for rate cuts, and the crypto market is waiting for liquidity to be released. But the Fed officials’ bottom line is whether the data confirms it. As long as the data hasn’t broken, any pricing based on wishful thinking will ultimately be taught a hard lesson by real yields.
In this situation, as long as inflation data shows so much as a minor reversal, the market’s pain period is far from over. $BTC
#沃什称通胀是美联储首要关注
