And here is a simple explanation.
On-chain metrics reflect investor behavior, and investor behavior is deeply connected to market cycles, periods of euphoria, and periods of fear.
There is something interesting I’ve been watching closely. I want to make it clear that this is not financial advice. It is simply my opinion after analyzing a large amount of data.
I’ll use the MVRV Z-Score to explain it better.
2017 to 2018 cycle
1. In 2017, this metric created three major peaks before Bitcoin reached its all-time high.
2. After the ATH, Bitcoin declined and the metric formed a base between roughly 0.25 and 1.16.
3. At the time, many people were not expecting another major decline. Then, in November 2018, Bitcoin dropped sharply toward $3,180.
Latest bull cycle
1. Between 2024 and 2025, the MVRV Z-Score also created three peaks, although they were less euphoric given how much more complex the market has become.
2. After the ATH, Bitcoin declined and the metric formed a base around the same region seen in 2018.
3. Recently, the metric moved higher and Bitcoin followed. However, unlike 2018, the MVRV Z-Score has still not visited the negative region that historically marked major Bitcoin price bottoms.
I’ve been fascinated by on-chain metrics for years, which is why some tools built an arsenal of them.
But the mental exercise I keep doing is this:
What are the chances that this metric still needs to move lower, and Bitcoin’s price follows it?
I’m going to make a dedicated video showing why, from a purely on-chain perspective, the price bottom may not have happened yet. For the conditions I’m looking at to be satisfied, $BTC would likely need to fall toward at least $53,000 or lower.
I’m questioning the data, not the current bullish narratives.
That is exactly why I brought up 2018. At that point, almost nobody expected another major leg down either.
The truth is, I don’t want the market to fall further. When that happens, retail investors disappear and the environment becomes worse for everyone.
But every day I look at these metrics and they seem to be saying: the bottom may still not be in.
And I keep asking myself whether this cycle will ultimately behave the way previous cycles did.
It’s complex, without a doubt. Sometimes, however, the best decision is simply to observe, analyze carefully, and catch the train along the way with greater confidence.
Because our beloved Bitcoin has always been full of traps 😀
