Vowsh’s hawkish remarks in Jackson Hole cut a gash through the market’s rate-cut expectations—suggesting that an interest-rate hike is not off the table, rather than just standing pat as everyone had speculated last week.
The capital reaction was immediate: $BTC slid straight through 79,000, and $GOLD also pulled back from its highs to around 4,545. Stocks, bonds, and commodities all sold off in a three-way kill, with risk assets under pressure across the board. This indicates it’s not an isolated adjustment in a single asset class, but an overall repricing of liquidity expectations.
Notably, this pullback looks more like an “expectation reset” rather than “deterioration in fundamentals.” On-chain active addresses and ETF net inflows have not stepped down in tandem, meaning medium-term demand is still there—the only change is that short-term sentiment is being suppressed by rate expectations.
In terms of positioning, I’ll stick to two principles: first, not to bet heavily on a single direction; second, wait until the first FOMC meeting after Jackson Hole is finalized before making any add-to-position decisions. With the macro picture still uncertain, even if the technical setup looks good, it’s still only probability—not certainty.
#Fed #JacksonHole
The capital reaction was immediate: $BTC slid straight through 79,000, and $GOLD also pulled back from its highs to around 4,545. Stocks, bonds, and commodities all sold off in a three-way kill, with risk assets under pressure across the board. This indicates it’s not an isolated adjustment in a single asset class, but an overall repricing of liquidity expectations.
Notably, this pullback looks more like an “expectation reset” rather than “deterioration in fundamentals.” On-chain active addresses and ETF net inflows have not stepped down in tandem, meaning medium-term demand is still there—the only change is that short-term sentiment is being suppressed by rate expectations.
In terms of positioning, I’ll stick to two principles: first, not to bet heavily on a single direction; second, wait until the first FOMC meeting after Jackson Hole is finalized before making any add-to-position decisions. With the macro picture still uncertain, even if the technical setup looks good, it’s still only probability—not certainty.
#Fed #JacksonHole