Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Worsh just delivered his first policy-theme speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
The core message is hawkish in tone, with the main points as follows:
A 2% inflation target is unshakeable: He made it clear that the Fed’s 2% price-stability target, measured by PCE, is firm and fixed.
Inflation is still too high, and the trend has not improved meaningfully: Although this summer’s PCE and CPI data beat expectations, it does not indicate that the underlying trend has meaningfully improved.
Financial conditions are not restrictive enough: “Overall, I find it difficult to describe the current broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
Inflation will not automatically come down: He warned that inflation may not self-correct—achieving price stability is the Fed’s responsibility, with “no excuses.”
Policy criteria: We must be confident that underlying inflation is becoming clearly visible and converging toward the target at a sufficient pace; otherwise, “we still have work to do.”
Continued emphasis on reducing forward guidance; interest rates remain the primary tool.
Immediate market reaction: After the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 30% to nearly 49%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged fell from 71% to 50%. Overall, it was viewed as a hawkish signal, emphasizing fighting inflation first.
#凯文・沃什 #美联储降息周期 #加息风险 $BTC
The core message is hawkish in tone, with the main points as follows:
A 2% inflation target is unshakeable: He made it clear that the Fed’s 2% price-stability target, measured by PCE, is firm and fixed.
Inflation is still too high, and the trend has not improved meaningfully: Although this summer’s PCE and CPI data beat expectations, it does not indicate that the underlying trend has meaningfully improved.
Financial conditions are not restrictive enough: “Overall, I find it difficult to describe the current broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
Inflation will not automatically come down: He warned that inflation may not self-correct—achieving price stability is the Fed’s responsibility, with “no excuses.”
Policy criteria: We must be confident that underlying inflation is becoming clearly visible and converging toward the target at a sufficient pace; otherwise, “we still have work to do.”
Continued emphasis on reducing forward guidance; interest rates remain the primary tool.
Immediate market reaction: After the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 30% to nearly 49%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged fell from 71% to 50%. Overall, it was viewed as a hawkish signal, emphasizing fighting inflation first.
#凯文・沃什 #美联储降息周期 #加息风险 $BTC
