Fed's Warsh just threw cold water on the inflation victory lap. Summer's cooler CPI prints looked good on the surface, but he's saying the underlying trend hasn't actually shifted — meaning the structural drivers are still there.
This matters for $SPY because it keeps the higher-for-longer narrative alive. If the Fed sees stickiness below the headline numbers, they're not pivoting anytime soon. Watch gamma levels around 450-455 on $SPY — dealer positioning suggests vol could spike if we retest those strikes on hawkish commentary like this.
Translation: don't confuse a few good months with a regime change. The Fed's still in wait-and-see mode, and that caps upside until the data actually bends.
This matters for $SPY because it keeps the higher-for-longer narrative alive. If the Fed sees stickiness below the headline numbers, they're not pivoting anytime soon. Watch gamma levels around 450-455 on $SPY — dealer positioning suggests vol could spike if we retest those strikes on hawkish commentary like this.
Translation: don't confuse a few good months with a regime change. The Fed's still in wait-and-see mode, and that caps upside until the data actually bends.