诸葛投研
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诸葛投研
Square Verified+2017年底进币圈的老韭菜，原股票持证投顾。只分享自己交易，不代表投资建议，跟着操作盈亏自负。视频号“诸葛web3投研”，已经20w粉，欢迎来找我。
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Dear bosses, the Binance Web3 wallet has also started charging transaction fees. If you haven't linked an invitation code yet, you can use my invitation code "ZG666" to do so. Existing accounts can also fill it out.
Currently, you can reduce 30% of the transaction fees, and I can earn a 10% commission. I will permanently keep only 10%, and the more people use it, the higher the rebates I can give everyone in the future. If you feel that my content has been helpful to you, linking the invitation code is the biggest support for me.
How to link: In the Binance App wallet homepage, click "Invite" → click "Enter invitation code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm, and you're all set.
Currently, you can reduce 30% of the transaction fees, and I can earn a 10% commission. I will permanently keep only 10%, and the more people use it, the higher the rebates I can give everyone in the future. If you feel that my content has been helpful to you, linking the invitation code is the biggest support for me.
How to link: In the Binance App wallet homepage, click "Invite" → click "Enter invitation code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm, and you're all set.
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Some fans asked me: if I don’t buy this, and I don’t touch that, is there actually any coin trading going on?
My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)
1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.
2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.
3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.
4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.
5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?
My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)
1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.
2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.
3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.
4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.
5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?
诸葛投研
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The much-anticipated Grvt is indeed here, but it may not be as big as everyone imagined—at least not in terms of size:
1. The final threshold is 245 points, with only 30,000 allocations total, meaning 100 Grvt per person. At the pre-market price of 0.35u, each single allocation is 35u. 123 is just there to comfort everyone—it shows a pre-market value of 200u, but it actually uses a somewhat imprecise data scope.
2. This airdrop isn’t as large as people expected, because Alpha’s allocation share is only 0.3%, down from the expected 1%, which is a 70% direct reduction. Also, allocations must be spread as widely as possible; otherwise everyone would be furious at AnAn—so they could only make each individual “slice” smaller.
3. But honestly, Alpha’s resources really have been reduced. Everyone look at Binance’s official posts—lately they’ve been talking about bStocks. The direct impact is that Alpha only gets 0.3% of the allocation, far less than the 1% over on the other side.
4. So all we can say is: at least it wasn’t a TGE. Life is about digesting pain so you can have the strength to keep moving forward.
1. The final threshold is 245 points, with only 30,000 allocations total, meaning 100 Grvt per person. At the pre-market price of 0.35u, each single allocation is 35u. 123 is just there to comfort everyone—it shows a pre-market value of 200u, but it actually uses a somewhat imprecise data scope.
2. This airdrop isn’t as large as people expected, because Alpha’s allocation share is only 0.3%, down from the expected 1%, which is a 70% direct reduction. Also, allocations must be spread as widely as possible; otherwise everyone would be furious at AnAn—so they could only make each individual “slice” smaller.
3. But honestly, Alpha’s resources really have been reduced. Everyone look at Binance’s official posts—lately they’ve been talking about bStocks. The direct impact is that Alpha only gets 0.3% of the allocation, far less than the 1% over on the other side.
4. So all we can say is: at least it wasn’t a TGE. Life is about digesting pain so you can have the strength to keep moving forward.
Verified
$NVDAB NVIDIA releases earnings report, exceeding market expectations, with the stock surging 4%:
1. Revenue is 96.2 billion, exceeding the expected 92.1 billion; adjusted EPS is 2.22, also above the expected 2.09; even the gross margin rose from the previous 72.5% back up to 75%.
2. In the earnings report, the expected Q3 revenue is 108 billion, and expectations are still rising—indicating they believe market demand hasn’t peaked yet and there’s still room for growth.
3. NVIDIA’s valuation doesn’t look too inflated either. If you calculate the P/E, it’s only about 23x, and it’s likely this AI-driven momentum can continue lifting the stock for a while more.
4. As soon as the report came out, capital voted with its feet—short-term sentiment is positive. There’s no “sell on the news” happening, which suggests the market still has confidence in the future.
Of course, there are also some potential risks. Everyone shouldn’t get too carried away. This risk is also mentioned in their earnings report: China’s regulatory risk is a sword hanging overhead, which could cut off a large chunk of its $NVDA.US valuation at any time. #英伟达营收超预期股价涨4%
1. Revenue is 96.2 billion, exceeding the expected 92.1 billion; adjusted EPS is 2.22, also above the expected 2.09; even the gross margin rose from the previous 72.5% back up to 75%.
2. In the earnings report, the expected Q3 revenue is 108 billion, and expectations are still rising—indicating they believe market demand hasn’t peaked yet and there’s still room for growth.
3. NVIDIA’s valuation doesn’t look too inflated either. If you calculate the P/E, it’s only about 23x, and it’s likely this AI-driven momentum can continue lifting the stock for a while more.
4. As soon as the report came out, capital voted with its feet—short-term sentiment is positive. There’s no “sell on the news” happening, which suggests the market still has confidence in the future.
Of course, there are also some potential risks. Everyone shouldn’t get too carried away. This risk is also mentioned in their earnings report: China’s regulatory risk is a sword hanging overhead, which could cut off a large chunk of its $NVDA.US valuation at any time. #英伟达营收超预期股价涨4%
NVDAB+3.22%
NVDAUS-0.72%
I said it twice: $BTC can’t be opened for shorts now. In the end, you got trapped. Ask me what it’s good for 😂 I can only suggest cutting your losses!
1. If you really get trapped, don’t panic, because you’re not alone: right now the short positions in the market are even heavier than the long side!
2. In a short-squeeze market, shorting $BTC has no future—especially this kind of speculative short.
Don’t think that because BTC has risen from 66,000 to 79,000 it’s automatically a high point and shorting is a sure win. BTC was still 120,000 last year.
3. Of course, if your stop-loss price is above 90,000, your odds are still pretty high. Because I also think that BTC will surge toward 86,000 and then drop again.
4. Net inflows into the ETF have already fallen off a cliff, which means the main engine driving the rally (institutional spot demand) has stalled. Without additional incremental demand, it’s hard to push through.
My plan is still to focus on spot. When it runs up, I’ll take profit and trade the swings. The short-squeeze trend is still ongoing—so you can’t open shorts. There’s always a risk of being liquidated by surprise “piercing” moves.
1. If you really get trapped, don’t panic, because you’re not alone: right now the short positions in the market are even heavier than the long side!
2. In a short-squeeze market, shorting $BTC has no future—especially this kind of speculative short.
Don’t think that because BTC has risen from 66,000 to 79,000 it’s automatically a high point and shorting is a sure win. BTC was still 120,000 last year.
3. Of course, if your stop-loss price is above 90,000, your odds are still pretty high. Because I also think that BTC will surge toward 86,000 and then drop again.
4. Net inflows into the ETF have already fallen off a cliff, which means the main engine driving the rally (institutional spot demand) has stalled. Without additional incremental demand, it’s hard to push through.
My plan is still to focus on spot. When it runs up, I’ll take profit and trade the swings. The short-squeeze trend is still ongoing—so you can’t open shorts. There’s always a risk of being liquidated by surprise “piercing” moves.
Binance Wallet is really good at bringing in money—today I received another 4u reward. This is the reward from the last Venus financial management plan. I previously shared a guide on how everyone can participate—everyone, go claim your money.
For brothers who haven’t bound a wallet invite code yet, bind it as soon as possible. For on-chain token transactions like US stocks on the chain, Doge meme, buying and selling Alpha, etc., you can save 30% on trading fees.
How to bind: On the Binance app, go to the Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
For brothers who haven’t bound a wallet invite code yet, bind it as soon as possible. For on-chain token transactions like US stocks on the chain, Doge meme, buying and selling Alpha, etc., you can save 30% on trading fees.
How to bind: On the Binance app, go to the Wallet homepage, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter invite code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.
Today’s Airdrop $DEBIT results are all out too. If I were you, I’d go for the bigger picture:
1. Time: 18:00. Threshold: 240 points. 20,000份. Now the pool price is 22.5u per person, but the pool price is usually a bit low. I estimate the opening price will tick up a little. If there are snipers, then for certain single accounts there’s a chance to reach 40u.
2. First of all, let me say this: I don’t have enough points, so the brothers who do have enough points will make money.
The distribution of the pool’s chips is very concentrated. If I were making a bet, I’d go for one round for two reasons:
（1）This is the shell of an old project. It’s been repackaged with a new story, so I suspect someone bought the shell.
If someone is trying to dump it in pursuit of getting to Alpha, with the current lousy market conditions, they may not even be able to break even.
（2）The main thing is this is an extremely high-control project. There’s basically no chips outside the pool at all. The level of control equals “three no-issues” projects—so the pull-up foundation is there.
In any case, at the current price, it’s just a 22.5u little trash coin. Better to go for the bigger picture and keep a souvenir/hope for it.
1. Time: 18:00. Threshold: 240 points. 20,000份. Now the pool price is 22.5u per person, but the pool price is usually a bit low. I estimate the opening price will tick up a little. If there are snipers, then for certain single accounts there’s a chance to reach 40u.
2. First of all, let me say this: I don’t have enough points, so the brothers who do have enough points will make money.
The distribution of the pool’s chips is very concentrated. If I were making a bet, I’d go for one round for two reasons:
（1）This is the shell of an old project. It’s been repackaged with a new story, so I suspect someone bought the shell.
If someone is trying to dump it in pursuit of getting to Alpha, with the current lousy market conditions, they may not even be able to break even.
（2）The main thing is this is an extremely high-control project. There’s basically no chips outside the pool at all. The level of control equals “three no-issues” projects—so the pull-up foundation is there.
In any case, at the current price, it’s just a 22.5u little trash coin. Better to go for the bigger picture and keep a souvenir/hope for it.
I thought the returns from $TMX would be really bad, so I even specifically suggested everyone not to do the booster. But I never expected this: it’s that bad?!
And the project rules were quietly changed. At first they said that people who completed task one would split 1.7 million $TMX evenly—I figured there were about 60,000 people who actually finished task one.
But they still used 80,000 participants and only sent the lowest guaranteed amount: 21.25 $TMX per person.
In the end, when I sold for 3.7u, I couldn’t even cover the transaction fee for two Alpha points 😂
And the project rules were quietly changed. At first they said that people who completed task one would split 1.7 million $TMX evenly—I figured there were about 60,000 people who actually finished task one.
But they still used 80,000 participants and only sent the lowest guaranteed amount: 21.25 $TMX per person.
In the end, when I sold for 3.7u, I couldn’t even cover the transaction fee for two Alpha points 😂
诸葛投研
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Are there any friends who haven’t done TermMax yet? I just realized this booster mission #TermMax is a bit of a loss—my suggestion is not to do it.
1. First of all, I think TermMax’s market cap of 182 million already seems quite high. After it launches, it likely won’t pump. So using the pre-market price to judge the reward value is relatively accurate. (Friends who agree with this point can go straight to point 2.)
Let’s look at TermMax’s fundamentals. TermMax is about fixed-rate lending and a revolving strategy protocol. In other words, you deposit collateral and then borrow from the treasury, and the interest rates are fixed—so you don’t have to worry that one day the treasury’s assets will be insufficient and cause high volatility.
A couple of days ago, the official account @TermMax released a press release saying total TVL reached $90 million. But everyone knows how much TVL the lending protocol leader Aave has? It holds more than 60% of the DeFi lending market, with $14.6 billion in TVL—162 times TermMax. Yet its market cap is only 1.35 billion, which is just 7.4 times TermMax.
Of course, fixed-rate lending is hard to run, because poor liquidity is a hard drawback. Once the rate is locked, the funds get stuck—if the pool isn’t active, it can’t rotate.
Right now, it seems TermMax has solved this drawback in the most perfect way: it uses an order-book rate-matching mechanism similar to Uniswap V3 Range Orders, which attracts lots of idle funds into the liquidity pool.
But even if we consider that the fixed-rate lending market previously developed poorly and there’s bigger room for imagination, it still seems difficult to justify such a valuation premium for a specific blue-chip like TermMax. So I think the upside is limited.
2. With this consensus, let’s break down the TMX rewards: the total supply of TMX is 1 billion tokens, and the pre-market price is 0.182u per token. This time they will distribute 1.7 million TMX, worth 309,400u.
3. The event still has 6 days left. Now there are already 40,000 people registered—meaning the average reward per person is 3.8 to 7.7u. And everyone’s Alpha points cost is 2u per point. Plus you also have to worry about whether spending the points won’t meet the threshold. No matter how you calculate it, it’s a loss.
4. The key point: TMX is expected to launch next Tuesday at 6:00, but the official account says there may be a lock-up period. If at launch the 182 million market cap only unlocks half for me, and then it unlocks the other half only after the market cap drops to 50 million, then it’s a total loss—like the kind that makes you lose your mind from how bad it is.
1. First of all, I think TermMax’s market cap of 182 million already seems quite high. After it launches, it likely won’t pump. So using the pre-market price to judge the reward value is relatively accurate. (Friends who agree with this point can go straight to point 2.)
Let’s look at TermMax’s fundamentals. TermMax is about fixed-rate lending and a revolving strategy protocol. In other words, you deposit collateral and then borrow from the treasury, and the interest rates are fixed—so you don’t have to worry that one day the treasury’s assets will be insufficient and cause high volatility.
A couple of days ago, the official account @TermMax released a press release saying total TVL reached $90 million. But everyone knows how much TVL the lending protocol leader Aave has? It holds more than 60% of the DeFi lending market, with $14.6 billion in TVL—162 times TermMax. Yet its market cap is only 1.35 billion, which is just 7.4 times TermMax.
Of course, fixed-rate lending is hard to run, because poor liquidity is a hard drawback. Once the rate is locked, the funds get stuck—if the pool isn’t active, it can’t rotate.
Right now, it seems TermMax has solved this drawback in the most perfect way: it uses an order-book rate-matching mechanism similar to Uniswap V3 Range Orders, which attracts lots of idle funds into the liquidity pool.
But even if we consider that the fixed-rate lending market previously developed poorly and there’s bigger room for imagination, it still seems difficult to justify such a valuation premium for a specific blue-chip like TermMax. So I think the upside is limited.
2. With this consensus, let’s break down the TMX rewards: the total supply of TMX is 1 billion tokens, and the pre-market price is 0.182u per token. This time they will distribute 1.7 million TMX, worth 309,400u.
3. The event still has 6 days left. Now there are already 40,000 people registered—meaning the average reward per person is 3.8 to 7.7u. And everyone’s Alpha points cost is 2u per point. Plus you also have to worry about whether spending the points won’t meet the threshold. No matter how you calculate it, it’s a loss.
4. The key point: TMX is expected to launch next Tuesday at 6:00, but the official account says there may be a lock-up period. If at launch the 182 million market cap only unlocks half for me, and then it unlocks the other half only after the market cap drops to 50 million, then it’s a total loss—like the kind that makes you lose your mind from how bad it is.
Verified
After today’s close, it’s time for $NVDAB to release its Q2 FY27 earnings report. This report could be the key to whether AI stocks can find their spring again.
Crypto has been up for several days now—so I wonder if this time, AI can finally regain some momentum. 😏
Market expectations are for revenue of 92.18 billion (YoY +97%). The stock price has also basically moved in line with expectations. So, $NVDA fell for seven straight days last week, down 7.5%, wiping out 151 billion. This week it rebounded and has climbed back by 2%, but today is still a concentrated sell-pressure zone.
NVIDIA’s Groq 3 LPX inference rack has entered mass production and shipments are underway. The key variable now is how management approaches the $1 trillion Blackwell + Rubin order.
Of course, it’s better not to bet on the earnings report—wait for it. Brothers trading AI stocks and AI tokens, I suggest focusing on defense. You might hold small positions and wait for opportunities in the right direction; don’t risk your principal betting on luck.
Crypto has been up for several days now—so I wonder if this time, AI can finally regain some momentum. 😏
Market expectations are for revenue of 92.18 billion (YoY +97%). The stock price has also basically moved in line with expectations. So, $NVDA fell for seven straight days last week, down 7.5%, wiping out 151 billion. This week it rebounded and has climbed back by 2%, but today is still a concentrated sell-pressure zone.
NVIDIA’s Groq 3 LPX inference rack has entered mass production and shipments are underway. The key variable now is how management approaches the $1 trillion Blackwell + Rubin order.
Of course, it’s better not to bet on the earnings report—wait for it. Brothers trading AI stocks and AI tokens, I suggest focusing on defense. You might hold small positions and wait for opportunities in the right direction; don’t risk your principal betting on luck.
$NES what else is there to play? Pure PVP market, basically.
After the waterfall last night, nobody was playing. The opportunists pushed the price up first, but couldn’t find anyone to take the bag—so they晒(shine) their profits to lure the next speculators in.
Look at the trade records. Trades are only 100u per minute—basically just like a meme. Once the hacker situation blows over, nobody will be paying attention next week.
After the waterfall last night, nobody was playing. The opportunists pushed the price up first, but couldn’t find anyone to take the bag—so they晒(shine) their profits to lure the next speculators in.
Look at the trade records. Trades are only 100u per minute—basically just like a meme. Once the hacker situation blows over, nobody will be paying attention next week.
Today’s airdrop situation for $TMX is basically out. I ultimately don’t plan to “hold the line”:
1. The main reason is the valuation is too high: the project team’s pool price is 0.06u, but it’s been pumped to 0.2u before the market opens. Compared with lending giant Aave, TMX’s valuation has a bubble.
2. With a bubble, this time the community airdrop only issued 10%. I heard that big holders were required to stake for 3 months, so it’s likely the project team will run first. If the project team wants to run, then who will prop up the price?
3. Also, the project team seems pretty broke: the funding amount isn’t high; even the KOL marketing is done with TMX; they issued 10% community airdrops, and there are still people shouting about getting reverse-rugged; and the witch rules are unclear—I suspect there may be insider positions.
It should still go up on Binance perps, but after the project team runs, I doubt it can even exceed 0.2u. So based on the overall judgment: if it opens above 0.15, I’ll bail—selling into strength is guaranteed profit.
Of course, wishing the brothers who choose to hold the line get rich too! (Basic info attached: today 18:00, threshold 225 points, 200 coins per person on average, and the current pre-market value is 38u.)
1. The main reason is the valuation is too high: the project team’s pool price is 0.06u, but it’s been pumped to 0.2u before the market opens. Compared with lending giant Aave, TMX’s valuation has a bubble.
2. With a bubble, this time the community airdrop only issued 10%. I heard that big holders were required to stake for 3 months, so it’s likely the project team will run first. If the project team wants to run, then who will prop up the price?
3. Also, the project team seems pretty broke: the funding amount isn’t high; even the KOL marketing is done with TMX; they issued 10% community airdrops, and there are still people shouting about getting reverse-rugged; and the witch rules are unclear—I suspect there may be insider positions.
It should still go up on Binance perps, but after the project team runs, I doubt it can even exceed 0.2u. So based on the overall judgment: if it opens above 0.15, I’ll bail—selling into strength is guaranteed profit.
Of course, wishing the brothers who choose to hold the line get rich too! (Basic info attached: today 18:00, threshold 225 points, 200 coins per person on average, and the current pre-market value is 38u.)
Awesome! $BTC broke 80k in one go—thanks to the Air Force for the assist!
As always, this is the market riding on the short-squeeze momentum. Once you catch the “Air Force” fish, chances are it’ll keep pulling higher. (But I feel like breaking 86k is hard.)
Turns out the Air Force guys still came rushing out one after another—so doesn’t that mean we keep pulling up? 😂😂😂
I’m already a bit scared of heights. If we really go up to 84k, I plan to do a swing trade and take profit first. (Why is the spot card showing negative return? Is it because I put BTC into wealth management?)
As always, this is the market riding on the short-squeeze momentum. Once you catch the “Air Force” fish, chances are it’ll keep pulling higher. (But I feel like breaking 86k is hard.)
Turns out the Air Force guys still came rushing out one after another—so doesn’t that mean we keep pulling up? 😂😂😂
I’m already a bit scared of heights. If we really go up to 84k, I plan to do a swing trade and take profit first. (Why is the spot card showing negative return? Is it because I put BTC into wealth management?)
Verified
Alpha, this month is really like New Year! At the beginning of the month we’ve already onboarded 5 new projects. Last week we only ate 2 old coins, and this week we’ve got another consecutive 2 new projects!
Yesterday everyone was guessing that the DEBIT will be confirmed to be onboard Alpha. Today, after we finish $TMX, tomorrow there’s still $DEBIT. Too bad tomorrow is exactly when everyone will be returning to split the allocation, and I don’t have enough—😂
Yesterday everyone was guessing that the DEBIT will be confirmed to be onboard Alpha. Today, after we finish $TMX, tomorrow there’s still $DEBIT. Too bad tomorrow is exactly when everyone will be returning to split the allocation, and I don’t have enough—😂
Brothers, Binance is insanely great! Taking responsibility!
Taking full responsibility for its own mistakes, it not only lets all users split the rewards evenly, but also gives high-scoring users the right to receive weighted rewards! It doesn’t let users suffer any loss at all.
Turns out I was the clown. I judged a gentleman with the mind of a petty person. Brothers, let’s shout together: Binance is awesome!
Taking full responsibility for its own mistakes, it not only lets all users split the rewards evenly, but also gives high-scoring users the right to receive weighted rewards! It doesn’t let users suffer any loss at all.
Turns out I was the clown. I judged a gentleman with the mind of a petty person. Brothers, let’s shout together: Binance is awesome!
Brothers of Alpha, don’t keep placing orders on $KII —this is a blatant sign that they’re the users of the trading contest who cut trades openly. Don’t get caught in the crossfire, brothers!
Verified
In this market cycle, $ZEC can surge 70% from 500 to 850, and it’s still a strong breakout on increased volume. Besides simply following the broader market trend, there are also its own independent positive catalysts:
1. Last week, Grayscale filed a fourth amendment request with the SEC to convert the Zcash trust into a spot ETF and list it on the NYSE. If this gets approved, it would be the first privacy coin spot ETF in the United States.
2. Even more aggressively, Grayscale’s parent company, DCG, is in talks to inject 200,000 ZEC into this trust—worth about $110 million based on the then-current price. DCG also has companies mining ZEC and operating mining pools; the whole industry chain is tied to Zcash.
3. The key point is that ZEC itself has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins and also has a mining halving mechanism, which is similar to $BTC . The difference is that privacy functionality has been added—transaction amounts and addresses can be hidden.
4. The SEC also previously investigated the Zcash Foundation, but that ended earlier this year and no enforcement action was taken. This signal is crucial, indicating that regulators’ stance toward privacy coins may be loosening.
Of course, the upside can be even bigger—and so can the downside, especially now that it’s already severely overbought. DYOR
1. Last week, Grayscale filed a fourth amendment request with the SEC to convert the Zcash trust into a spot ETF and list it on the NYSE. If this gets approved, it would be the first privacy coin spot ETF in the United States.
2. Even more aggressively, Grayscale’s parent company, DCG, is in talks to inject 200,000 ZEC into this trust—worth about $110 million based on the then-current price. DCG also has companies mining ZEC and operating mining pools; the whole industry chain is tied to Zcash.
3. The key point is that ZEC itself has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins and also has a mining halving mechanism, which is similar to $BTC . The difference is that privacy functionality has been added—transaction amounts and addresses can be hidden.
4. The SEC also previously investigated the Zcash Foundation, but that ended earlier this year and no enforcement action was taken. This signal is crucial, indicating that regulators’ stance toward privacy coins may be loosening.
Of course, the upside can be even bigger—and so can the downside, especially now that it’s already severely overbought. DYOR
What the hell is Alpha trying to do? $KII is he trying to go back to the days of $BR when people were forced to be held back?
$ASTER is definitely intentional. People like $HYPE are making new highs, but it only knows how to push it up and harvest the longs… dirty big-money racket
Holding $BTC 5.1K USDT
These days, everyone千万别头铁开空! This rebound is a squeeze market—it's specifically aimed at blowing up the short sellers!
If it weren’t for all those headstrong brothers who opened shorts yesterday, we wouldn’t be able to reach 80,000 so quickly today. The day before, 3 billion were liquidated; yesterday, it was another 1.2 billion…
Now the short sellers have basically been wiped out. If, in the next few days, there are no new short positions added, the trend may turn downward. But if more big short sellers keep popping up, maybe we can still push higher 😂
This rebound feels so good—you can always trust $BTC
If it weren’t for all those headstrong brothers who opened shorts yesterday, we wouldn’t be able to reach 80,000 so quickly today. The day before, 3 billion were liquidated; yesterday, it was another 1.2 billion…
Now the short sellers have basically been wiped out. If, in the next few days, there are no new short positions added, the trend may turn downward. But if more big short sellers keep popping up, maybe we can still push higher 😂
This rebound feels so good—you can always trust $BTC
Don’t be too optimistic. Seriously speaking, $BTC this wave is a short-squeeze/shorters-dominant行情; calling it a bull run is a bit too early.
I believe you all also have a sense of it yourselves. The talk of a bull market in the past two days is just because things have been quiet for too long and people need to vent—so they hype it up with bravado.
1. To kick off a bull market, the macro environment has to improve across the board. Right now, there are too many issues—inflation, geopolitical tensions, uncertainties around the midterm election for <a>Chuanzi</a>, etc.—and it’s not something that’s going to improve easily.
2. After the news came out the day before yesterday, there is indeed a trend that the macro environment is getting better. But most of the positives are still at the stage of being talked about; they’re far from being fully implemented. Such a fast rise is clearly because the order/holdings in the 6w~6.6w range are too concentrated. With good-news momentum, the longs just took the opportunity to harvest a wave of shorts.
3. The main reason is that there’s still a big “tiger” range at 7.8w~8.5w to break through. That range also has a lot of trapped capital, so the longs probably can’t punch through it.
My advice is: don’t chase the price. I even suspect this big bullish candle is meant to change everyone’s beliefs, and then trigger a waterfall drop to new lows.
I believe you all also have a sense of it yourselves. The talk of a bull market in the past two days is just because things have been quiet for too long and people need to vent—so they hype it up with bravado.
1. To kick off a bull market, the macro environment has to improve across the board. Right now, there are too many issues—inflation, geopolitical tensions, uncertainties around the midterm election for <a>Chuanzi</a>, etc.—and it’s not something that’s going to improve easily.
2. After the news came out the day before yesterday, there is indeed a trend that the macro environment is getting better. But most of the positives are still at the stage of being talked about; they’re far from being fully implemented. Such a fast rise is clearly because the order/holdings in the 6w~6.6w range are too concentrated. With good-news momentum, the longs just took the opportunity to harvest a wave of shorts.
3. The main reason is that there’s still a big “tiger” range at 7.8w~8.5w to break through. That range also has a lot of trapped capital, so the longs probably can’t punch through it.
My advice is: don’t chase the price. I even suspect this big bullish candle is meant to change everyone’s beliefs, and then trigger a waterfall drop to new lows.
An An’s wallet sent everyone a 1u Dota 2 voucher the day before yesterday. It got a few fans to notice the 100,000u reward for the Dota 2 prediction event and asked how to claim the reward.
First, let me say the conclusion: you won’t be able to get it—don’t bother participating:
1. In this event, there are 39 matches in total, and each match has 9 prediction events. If you want your points to get onto the leaderboard, you must participate in every single one—so that’s 351 events altogether.
Now the event is almost over, and everyone else has already scored 748,000 points. You can’t catch up.
2. I joined the event on the first day, but I gave up pretty quickly. I used a hedging strategy. If you participate in everything, the total slippage cost is 600u.
With 351 events, plus hedging, that means I’d effectively need to buy 42u for every single event—that’s a real position of 15,000u each time. To ensure the hedging orders go through, I’d have to pay a 2% transaction fee at the current price to buy, plus another 1%~2% slippage based on the event percentage. All in all, the total slippage would be 600u.
What does 600u of slippage mean? I’d need to make it into the top 25 to break even. Otherwise, it’s all loss. I joined on the first day and saw how competitive it was—then I promptly quit.
3. An An probably noticed that no one was participating and felt a bit awkward, so he used a 1u reward to see if he could lure a few newcomers in.
First, let me say the conclusion: you won’t be able to get it—don’t bother participating:
1. In this event, there are 39 matches in total, and each match has 9 prediction events. If you want your points to get onto the leaderboard, you must participate in every single one—so that’s 351 events altogether.
Now the event is almost over, and everyone else has already scored 748,000 points. You can’t catch up.
2. I joined the event on the first day, but I gave up pretty quickly. I used a hedging strategy. If you participate in everything, the total slippage cost is 600u.
With 351 events, plus hedging, that means I’d effectively need to buy 42u for every single event—that’s a real position of 15,000u each time. To ensure the hedging orders go through, I’d have to pay a 2% transaction fee at the current price to buy, plus another 1%~2% slippage based on the event percentage. All in all, the total slippage would be 600u.
What does 600u of slippage mean? I’d need to make it into the top 25 to break even. Otherwise, it’s all loss. I joined on the first day and saw how competitive it was—then I promptly quit.
3. An An probably noticed that no one was participating and felt a bit awkward, so he used a 1u reward to see if he could lure a few newcomers in.
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