What is the connection between kindness and cause and effect? Zen isn’t chasing light outward; it’s first living in a way that turns yourself into a lamp that can shine— #LUCIC
🌿A new week begins; market ups and downs are simply the norm. Don’t let short-term fluctuations throw off your mindset. Keep your patience and sense of measure—stick to your own rhythm. Wishing everyone stable positioning, with opportunities arriving as scheduled, and all things going well✨
BTC’s third time suffering a large underperformance versus the Nasdaq; both previous instances saw strong independent rallies
On August 30, analyst Rekt Fencer released a BTC-to-Nasdaq 3-day ratio chart, marking three significant drawdowns: approximately -84.9% in 2018, about -80.7% in 2022, and the current roughly -54.3% in 2026. Rekt Fencer said that after the first two times Bitcoin suffered such a large underperformance relative to the Nasdaq, they were followed by very strong independent uptrends, with prices subsequently surging nearly straight up. With the ratio now falling sharply again, history may repeat for a third time; the bottom is already near, and next BTC will strengthen again.
The drawdown in the BTC-to-Nasdaq ratio indeed forms a rare long-term pattern: the deep underperformance of -84.9% in 2018 and -80.7% in 2022 both occurred at the end of a period of tightening macro liquidity, after which Bitcoin completed a repair through a decoupling-style independent move. While the current underperformance of -54.3% has not matched the extremes of the previous two instances, combined with Wintermute’s earlier observation that BTC is more bearish-biased than equities and shows asymmetric behavior—smaller gains on up days—the market structure has already become highly similar to the 2022 bear market.
$BTC Honestly, deep down, I actually expect more than anyone else that BTC will pull back to around 40,000. If we really get to this level, my take can be discussed and held for years.
But reality is right in front of us: that big bullish candle for BTC has pierced through three moving averages in one move, and the overall market structure has completely changed. I can’t stick to old habits and stubbornly insist that BTC will definitely return to 40,000.
Some people will question: I was looking at 50,000 the other day—so why did my view change so quickly? To be honest, I’m also afraid—afraid of missing out on this bull market cycle.
Thinking must evolve with the market. Right now is the early stage of a transition from bear to bull, just like what people in my hometown say: when a young person is just beginning to show their talent, the market is only just starting to wake up.
There’s still a chance to get in, but for BTC in the 50-thousand handle, we probably won’t be waiting for that again. Opportunities for positioning still exist around 65,000 and 68,000; in the worst case, around 70,000. The probability of this opportunity is at least 50%.
A single misstep can become a lifelong regret—by the time you turn around, the bull market has already gone far. Every time a bull market starts, the path is never a simple copy of the previous one. Trying to “cut a boat by the sword,” blindly replicating past patterns, will only mislead yourself—and mislead the people around you.
Humble yourself to the trend—there’s nothing shameful about it. Of course, chasing long positions right now isn’t rational either. If this round can’t break through 8.3W, the market will likely come into a pullback, and most likely trade sideways in the 65,000–72,000 range for 3–5 months. Then, once one day sees a breakout with strong volume, the bull market’s main surge toward 100,000 will officially begin—this is the scenario I think is most likely to play out next.
Why does the bodhisattva sit upside down? It’s a sigh for all sentient beings who refuse to turn back.
ETH will move in sync with BTC, oscillating as it pulls back to the 1,800–2,000 range—good for staged spot entries. SOL dropping to 80–90 can be accumulated in batches. PAXG pulling back to around 4,200–4,300 is worth watching; with multiple central banks continuously increasing large holdings, it’s something to pay attention to.
There are quite a few U.S. stock benchmarks. I’ll break them down one by one later. SPX won’t keep making lower lows; the rebound trend should continue. Previously, I planned long-term positions around 110, and that approach still holds.
Let me be candid here: I’m sorry—I was previously leaning too bearish. The market has already transitioned from bear to bull, and the bull market has only just started to show its head.
I hope the broader market will later offer a pullback. For family members who haven’t set up spot positions yet, you can use the pullback to enter in batches. That’s all the thinking I can share. I hope everyone can抓紧 the cycle and time it well.
🌙Grateful for the day, carrying warm light Good night 💗$BNB 🧧🧧 Thank you for all the kindness I encountered today Thank you to myself for continuing, for another day Sleep well #1688家族family
📢 Opinion|$BTC Again Significantly Underperforms the Nasdaq—Will History Recreate an Independent Major Bull Run for the Third Time?
On August 30, analyst Rekt Fencer shared a BTC/Nasdaq 3-day ratio chart. Data shows that this ratio has experienced three deep drawdowns: ‑84.9% in 2018, ‑80.7% in 2022, and ‑54.3% in 2026 during this latest drawdown.
Looking back at history, after the first two instances in which Bitcoin fell behind the Nasdaq by such a large margin, BTC went on to deliver an independent strong uptrend that broke away from tech stocks, followed by a wave of intense upside momentum.
Now, as the ratio falls again into historically extreme ranges, many market observers believe that a bottoming area is drawing near. If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could shake off U.S. stocks and restart its own行情. #比特币现货ETF结束9日净流入 #首笔抗量子比特币交易主网完成 ⚠️For historical data review only; history does not indicate the future and does not constitute investment advice.
🌿A new week begins; market ups and downs are simply the norm. Don’t let short-term fluctuations throw off your mindset. Keep your patience and sense of measure—stick to your own rhythm. Wishing everyone stable positioning, with opportunities arriving as scheduled, and all things going well✨
🔥Big-name guest|Teacher KY suddenly joins the livestream Former analyst at Western Securities; National-Level Senior Financial Analyst; selected for the National Talent Reserve. 15 years of full-time involvement in the crypto market, repeatedly and accurately capturing turning points in BTC bull and bear cycles; trained under veteran trader Xu Hanzhou.
Tonight’s free knowledge-sharing session ✅ Go beyond surface-level order-book signals|analyze funding logic|break down candlestick patterns|put trading strategies into practice Pure knowledge output with no commercial marketing—rebuild your understanding of trading in the secondary market!
Someone once said that the wind on the mountaintop never fights the dust of the valley floor. So spiritual altitude determines the radius of one’s tolerance. When a person is strong enough to achieve self-satisfaction, another person’s provocation turns into nothing more than mosquito bites.
BNB short-term intraday saw a volume-backed dip; there is clear resistance pressure near the MA60, and the short-term structure is weak.
The key is whether it can reclaim the moving average later; otherwise, better to stay put and observe.
Personal records only, not investment advice. DYOR 📉 #BNB
BNB saw a volume-backed dip on the short-term chart, with clear pressure near MA60 and a softened short-term structure. The focus is whether it can reclaim the moving average later; if not, better to wait and observe. Personal notes only, not financial advice. DYOR 📉
Peaceful moments, beautiful views and a little furry companion by my side. 🐱🤍 Sometimes, the simplest moments are the ones worth remembering. ✨ Stay calm stay focused, and keep building your journey in the crypto world. 🚀📈 #Binance #cryptouniverseofficial $BTC $LAB