$BTC $ENA $DOGE
Probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September: CME Fed Watch indicates that the rate will be maintained (3.50%-3.75%): 63.5%
·Hike 25bp (to 3.75%-4.00%): 36.5%
Other market/platform pricing
·Kalshi prediction: 67% for unchanged
Reuters economists’ survey (104 respondents): 90% expect to hold steady in September
Main background
Current interest rate: 3.50%-3.75% (maintained for 5 consecutive times following the July meeting)
Key reasons: easing inflation, cooling employment, and lingering economic resilience; the Fed is inclined to be cautious and wait
Key focus next
FOMC meeting on Sept 15-16, which will update economic projections and the dot plot
If inflation rebounds or employment turns out stronger than expected, the probability of a rate hike will rise quickly.#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高
Probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September: CME Fed Watch indicates that the rate will be maintained (3.50%-3.75%): 63.5%
·Hike 25bp (to 3.75%-4.00%): 36.5%
Other market/platform pricing
·Kalshi prediction: 67% for unchanged
Reuters economists’ survey (104 respondents): 90% expect to hold steady in September
Main background
Current interest rate: 3.50%-3.75% (maintained for 5 consecutive times following the July meeting)
Key reasons: easing inflation, cooling employment, and lingering economic resilience; the Fed is inclined to be cautious and wait
Key focus next
FOMC meeting on Sept 15-16, which will update economic projections and the dot plot
If inflation rebounds or employment turns out stronger than expected, the probability of a rate hike will rise quickly.#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高
