After $ETH breaks through, it holds for two consecutive 4H candles—yet the short sellers chasing the fake breakout must pay the price first.
The 4H candle that closes at 16:00 opened at 2492.89, had a low of 2481.74 and a high of 2499.00, and closed at 2497.16. Previously, the 08:00 and 12:00 candles closed at 2506.78 and 2492.89 respectively. In other words, after breaking 2483, the last two consecutive 4H candles’ closes on pullbacks have not had their bodies pushed back below the threshold. A new K-line that hasn’t closed yet won’t count toward a direction reversal even if it spikes upward.
Capital isn’t overly excited: the latest 4H spot成交量 is 23,676 ETH, which is 48.6% lower than the average volume of the prior 5 candles and 59.2% lower than the average of the prior 20. The share of aggressive buying is only 40.4%. Still, even with aggressive selling in the lead, it hasn’t broken through 2483—this suggests sell pressure is being consumed at the original breakout level. Although ETH/BTC has fallen from 0.03172 to 0.03158, it remains above the breakout candle’s start point of 0.03150. Meanwhile, in the same period, $BTC ’s latest closed 4H has only reached 79082.17, meaning the structure isn’t as clean as ETH’s.
Trapped are those betting that a breakout with expansion would fail immediately, but who didn’t wait for a 4H close back below 2483.
Within the monitoring window, no new macro, regulatory, ETF, or exchange events were verified that could change the structure. The only relevant catalyst is that at 20:30 tonight, the U.S. will release July’s estimated trade and inventory data. The reduced-volume holding before the release is more credible than intraday surges. Before 16:04, $ETH spot was 2513.51, and $BTC spot was 79442.52.
I’m clearly leaning bullish on $ETH : first target 2515.38, second target 2533. After holding, then look at 2547.
In the comments, pick a path: will it first break 2533, or will it first pull back to 2483? The only invalidation condition: $ETH ’s 4H candle close with its real body is back below 2483.
#ETH #Market Watch
The 4H candle that closes at 16:00 opened at 2492.89, had a low of 2481.74 and a high of 2499.00, and closed at 2497.16. Previously, the 08:00 and 12:00 candles closed at 2506.78 and 2492.89 respectively. In other words, after breaking 2483, the last two consecutive 4H candles’ closes on pullbacks have not had their bodies pushed back below the threshold. A new K-line that hasn’t closed yet won’t count toward a direction reversal even if it spikes upward.
Capital isn’t overly excited: the latest 4H spot成交量 is 23,676 ETH, which is 48.6% lower than the average volume of the prior 5 candles and 59.2% lower than the average of the prior 20. The share of aggressive buying is only 40.4%. Still, even with aggressive selling in the lead, it hasn’t broken through 2483—this suggests sell pressure is being consumed at the original breakout level. Although ETH/BTC has fallen from 0.03172 to 0.03158, it remains above the breakout candle’s start point of 0.03150. Meanwhile, in the same period, $BTC ’s latest closed 4H has only reached 79082.17, meaning the structure isn’t as clean as ETH’s.
Trapped are those betting that a breakout with expansion would fail immediately, but who didn’t wait for a 4H close back below 2483.
Within the monitoring window, no new macro, regulatory, ETF, or exchange events were verified that could change the structure. The only relevant catalyst is that at 20:30 tonight, the U.S. will release July’s estimated trade and inventory data. The reduced-volume holding before the release is more credible than intraday surges. Before 16:04, $ETH spot was 2513.51, and $BTC spot was 79442.52.
I’m clearly leaning bullish on $ETH : first target 2515.38, second target 2533. After holding, then look at 2547.
In the comments, pick a path: will it first break 2533, or will it first pull back to 2483? The only invalidation condition: $ETH ’s 4H candle close with its real body is back below 2483.
#ETH #Market Watch