While 93 coins in the entire market are down, $HYPE still set a new all-time high: the three layers of logic behind the $84 figure
On August 26, the crypto market broadly fell—out of 100 major assets, 93 were down, and the total 24-hour trading volume shrank by a third. On such a day, $HYPE surged against the trend to a new all-time high of $83.5, gaining 35%-40% over the week, with its market cap nearing $21 billion and landing in the top ten across the entire market.
This isn’t a broad rally driven by the overall market. It’s an independent trend—"when others are fearful, I’m greedy." Today, let’s break down the underlying logic behind HYPE’s breakout to this new high against the trend.
**First-layer logic: the regulatory gates open, and a brand-new market appears out of thin air**
On August 19, at a cryptocurrency meeting at the White House, Trump singled out Hyperliquid, saying that the CFTC chairman is studying how to allow the platform to enter the U.S. market "fully, compliantly, and legally." The weight of this statement lies in the fact that U.S. retail investors have long been kept out of Hyperliquid—yet perpetual futures are exactly its most profitable business. Globally, 60%-80% of the market share for perpetual futures is in the hands of this decentralized exchange.
That is to say, a top-tier trading platform already validated by the market has had its largest potential market (the U.S.) as zero until now. Once the CFTC channel is in place, it effectively opens a brand-new market for HYPE’s business out of thin air. The assessment by Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, is: "This is a win for the entire crypto industry."
**Second logic: buyback-and-burn upgrades, and the token supply enters a deflationary channel**
On August 26, on the same day, Hyperliquid activated the AQAv2 mechanism: using the returns from the protocol’s USDC reserves to buy back and burn HYPE, with the first buyback scheduled for October. Based on market estimates, this mechanism brings about $178.5 million in buyback funding per year, which is roughly $14.5 million per month and about $489,000 per day.
This is only the incremental part. The existing Assistance Fund has already allocated 97%-99% of trading fee income toward buying back HYPE; a total of 47.27 million tokens have been burned, accounting for 4.73% of the total supply. Buyback-and-burn is the most direct "deflation narrative" in the crypto world: supply decreases + demand increases, and the price is naturally supported.
**Third logic: real revenue underpins it—not storytelling**
The most solid bottoming force behind HYPE’s rise is that it has real, cash-like income. In the past 30 days, Hyperliquid processed more than $176 billion in trading volume, and open interest exceeded $8 billion. On August 23 alone, trading fees reached as high as $6.2 million—more than the total of several major Layer-1 chains. Data from DeFiLlama shows that its annualized revenue had previously surpassed $1 billion.
More importantly, its expansion path: the HIP-3 proposal allows external teams to deploy perpetual markets on Hyperliquid. The trading platform trade[XYZ] has already contributed about 55% of trading volume in August, and it has expanded the market from crypto assets to stocks, commodities, and indexes. The business’s ceiling is being raised continuously.
**But you also have to see the other side of the coin**
First is valuation. The market cap/annualized revenue multiple for HYPE has expanded from about 24x in early August to roughly 41x—going from "expensive" to "even more expensive." Whether this can be digested depends on whether the CFTC channel truly comes to fruition, not whether it remains just a verbal stance.
Second is the pressure from liquidity supply. Since February, venture capital firm Multicoin Capital has transferred more than $100 million worth of HYPE to Coinbase Prime (with only on August 20 alone transferring an amount on the order of about 19.8 million HYPE worth in USD). Historically, similar large inflows have been accompanied by roughly an 8% pullback. In addition, on September 6, about 9.92 million HYPE will be unlocked, creating short-term selling pressure.
**To sum it up**
This wave of HYPE making new highs against the trend is essentially a convergence of the threefold logic of "a new regulatory market + buyback-induced deflation + real revenue." It falls under the rare category of "fundamentals-driven market moves." But a 41x revenue multiple means expectations are already priced in heavily. The real validation points ahead are: whether there is substantial progress on the CFTC channel, how large the first October buyback will be, and whether the selling pressure from September unlocks can be absorbed.
Do you think HYPE’s compliance story is a genuinely new market backed by real money—or has the market priced it in early again? Share your thoughts in the comments section.