3.3%, as expected.
After the U.S. core PCE came out, the Fed became even more awkward
Inflation didn’t continue to worsen, economic growth is slowing, and core PCE also hasn’t accelerated further.
But even with 3.3% being a clear distance from the Fed’s 2% target.
How things will go in September is still hard to guess.
Friday’s Jackson Hole speech is drawing even more attention
Because right now, the market isn’t short of data—it’s short of the Fed’s stance.
Is it more worried about inflation?
Or is it starting to worry more about employment and economic growth?
If Waller sends a more dovish signal, the market may reprice rate-cut expectations again:
dollar and U.S. Treasury yields move lower,
risk appetite and BTC move higher.
But if he continues to emphasize sticky inflation—or even hints that rates still need to stay elevated—the market may again reprice the idea of “higher rates for longer.”
For BTC right now, don’t go long just because PCE matched expectations.
Wait until Friday.
And the more I think about it, the more I feel that:
What the market fears most isn’t bad data—it fears ambiguous data, and the Fed not being explicit about its message.
In that case, expectations for September will keep swinging, and the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC will continue to tug-of-war.
So over the next couple of days, focus on what the Fed says first, and then see where BTC goes.
Macro news is just a catalyst.
In the end, what truly determines prices is how capital reprices.#PCE物价指数 #杰克逊霍尔会议 $BTC
After the U.S. core PCE came out, the Fed became even more awkward
Inflation didn’t continue to worsen, economic growth is slowing, and core PCE also hasn’t accelerated further.
But even with 3.3% being a clear distance from the Fed’s 2% target.
How things will go in September is still hard to guess.
Friday’s Jackson Hole speech is drawing even more attention
Because right now, the market isn’t short of data—it’s short of the Fed’s stance.
Is it more worried about inflation?
Or is it starting to worry more about employment and economic growth?
If Waller sends a more dovish signal, the market may reprice rate-cut expectations again:
dollar and U.S. Treasury yields move lower,
risk appetite and BTC move higher.
But if he continues to emphasize sticky inflation—or even hints that rates still need to stay elevated—the market may again reprice the idea of “higher rates for longer.”
For BTC right now, don’t go long just because PCE matched expectations.
Wait until Friday.
And the more I think about it, the more I feel that:
What the market fears most isn’t bad data—it fears ambiguous data, and the Fed not being explicit about its message.
In that case, expectations for September will keep swinging, and the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC will continue to tug-of-war.
So over the next couple of days, focus on what the Fed says first, and then see where BTC goes.
Macro news is just a catalyst.
In the end, what truly determines prices is how capital reprices.#PCE物价指数 #杰克逊霍尔会议 $BTC