#加密恐惧贪婪指数升至74 #比特币64亿美元期权将到期 【US July PCE rebound: inflation stickiness returns, Fed caught in a dilemma】
The latest PCE data has poured cold water on the market: July PCE rose 3.7% year over year and 0.2% month over month, both above expectations; core PCE rose 3.3% year over year and 0.2% month over month. This marks the 65th consecutive month that inflation has been significantly above the Fed’s 2% target.
By component, goods prices fell 0.1% month over month, with clear drag from energy and furniture; however, service prices rose 0.3% month over month. Financial services and insurance jumped 1.2%, housing rose 0.3%, and core stickiness remains strong. Previously, the US conflict boosted oil prices: PCE in May briefly reached 4.1%. Now, although oil prices have pulled back from their peak, the US-Canada trade talks have broken down, and fresh tariff-driven inflation pressure may be next.
What makes it tougher is that the economy is also cooling. In July, personal consumption expenditures grew only 0.2%. Goods consumption fell for the second straight month, while the savings rate rose from 2.6% to 3% as households start saving again. Personal income growth barely outpaced inflation, and second-quarter GDP grew only 1.5%, below the long-term trend. Inflation hasn’t been contained, but growth is weakening—leaving the Fed increasingly passive.
At the July meeting, the Fed kept the target range for the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but internal hawkish voices are getting louder. After the data release, the market’s probability of a rate hike in September rose from 36% to 44%, and it fully priced in at least one hike before year-end. At this week’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Waller’s debut is a focal point, but outsiders widely expect he will not provide a clear signal. US Treasury yields have risen to the highest level since 2007, and the market is uncertain whether the Fed can deliver on its 2% target.
Wall Street’s view is clear: unless inflation cools noticeably in the coming months, the Fed is ready at any time to restart tightening. The August CPI on September 11 is the true policy watershed. The flavor of stagflation is getting stronger, and this is the Fed’s hardest moment. $B2 $BTR $NVDAB
The latest PCE data has poured cold water on the market: July PCE rose 3.7% year over year and 0.2% month over month, both above expectations; core PCE rose 3.3% year over year and 0.2% month over month. This marks the 65th consecutive month that inflation has been significantly above the Fed’s 2% target.
By component, goods prices fell 0.1% month over month, with clear drag from energy and furniture; however, service prices rose 0.3% month over month. Financial services and insurance jumped 1.2%, housing rose 0.3%, and core stickiness remains strong. Previously, the US conflict boosted oil prices: PCE in May briefly reached 4.1%. Now, although oil prices have pulled back from their peak, the US-Canada trade talks have broken down, and fresh tariff-driven inflation pressure may be next.
What makes it tougher is that the economy is also cooling. In July, personal consumption expenditures grew only 0.2%. Goods consumption fell for the second straight month, while the savings rate rose from 2.6% to 3% as households start saving again. Personal income growth barely outpaced inflation, and second-quarter GDP grew only 1.5%, below the long-term trend. Inflation hasn’t been contained, but growth is weakening—leaving the Fed increasingly passive.
At the July meeting, the Fed kept the target range for the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but internal hawkish voices are getting louder. After the data release, the market’s probability of a rate hike in September rose from 36% to 44%, and it fully priced in at least one hike before year-end. At this week’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Waller’s debut is a focal point, but outsiders widely expect he will not provide a clear signal. US Treasury yields have risen to the highest level since 2007, and the market is uncertain whether the Fed can deliver on its 2% target.
Wall Street’s view is clear: unless inflation cools noticeably in the coming months, the Fed is ready at any time to restart tightening. The August CPI on September 11 is the true policy watershed. The flavor of stagflation is getting stronger, and this is the Fed’s hardest moment. $B2 $BTR $NVDAB
