$BTR Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference will be held this week. The first public speech by Federal Reserve Chair Waller since taking office has become the focus of the room. He is scheduled to take the stage at 10:00 p.m. Beijing time on the 28th, with markets closely watching how he discusses inflation and the policy path ahead. At the prior July press conference, Waller was criticized for being “not candid enough” after he refused to provide clear guidance. U.S. Treasury bonds were immediately sold off; even though Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the repurchase of long-term Treasuries, yields still failed to stabilize. Waller has since been caught in a dilemma: Wall Street wants greater transparency, but he has consistently argued for reducing forward guidance, believing that excessive communication will tie policymakers’ hands.
A Bank of America survey shows that nearly 70% of investors expect him to keep a neutral tone this time. Strategist Kaban believes that persistent pressure in the U.S. Treasury market in recent days may force Waller to compromise. If he clearly states that he is prepared to raise rates if inflation does not fall, rate-hike expectations for September could rise slightly, the yield curve would flatten, and the U.S. dollar could receive support. But if he continues to sidestep near-term policy and only talks about productivity or structural issues, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury could break above 5.5%, putting the dollar under fresh selling pressure.
This year’s backdrop is markedly different from past years: the Treasury Department has already stepped in to influence long-end yields, leaving the entire burden of the pressure on Waller alone. Historically, the annual conference has typically had limited impact on markets, but this time, if Waller still refuses to provide the minimum policy signals the market needs, the central bank conference is likely to become one of the most far-reaching in recent years. #美比特币ETF连续六日净流入
A Bank of America survey shows that nearly 70% of investors expect him to keep a neutral tone this time. Strategist Kaban believes that persistent pressure in the U.S. Treasury market in recent days may force Waller to compromise. If he clearly states that he is prepared to raise rates if inflation does not fall, rate-hike expectations for September could rise slightly, the yield curve would flatten, and the U.S. dollar could receive support. But if he continues to sidestep near-term policy and only talks about productivity or structural issues, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury could break above 5.5%, putting the dollar under fresh selling pressure.
This year’s backdrop is markedly different from past years: the Treasury Department has already stepped in to influence long-end yields, leaving the entire burden of the pressure on Waller alone. Historically, the annual conference has typically had limited impact on markets, but this time, if Waller still refuses to provide the minimum policy signals the market needs, the central bank conference is likely to become one of the most far-reaching in recent years. #美比特币ETF连续六日净流入
