Acknowledging that the long position near 2,460 was swept out last night—hurts.
But I’m clear in my mind: this isn’t longs turning stronger; it’s that the shorts don’t want to grind it out around 2,460. Volume is 0.2, turnover is 700 million (700M). With trading compressed like this, even if you try to lift it, nobody wants to take it.
RSI 38.4: it’s not weak enough to count as oversold, and it’s not strong enough to say it’s strengthening. MACD is still bullish, but this is bullish movement on shrinking volume—two different concepts from a bullish crossover on expansion.
MA5 is 2,460, MA20 is 2,462; these two moving averages are intertwined, with price moving along them. MA50 is above, at 2,474, putting pressure overhead.
If I were a holder with a lot of shares, I wouldn’t be in a rush to sell here—and I also couldn’t sell it down easily. The zone from 2,415 to 2,424 is today’s low area and also near the lower Bollinger Band; shorts will likely stop there. What you really need to watch is 2,533 to 2,532—two hours ago’s high—also the dense trapped-supply area. If it rebounds up to that level, there should be positions getting relieved/unwound.
So my thinking is slightly bearish, but I won’t short outright. I’ll wait for a rebound toward around 2,533. Then I’ll consider shorting, with a stop-loss at 2,565 and take-profit around 2,470. If it directly breaks below 2,415, I won’t chase; I’ll wait and reassess around 2,380 to see whether there’s a volume-contraction rebound/stop-loss-like signal.
I might also be wrong. For example, if MACD suddenly shows a volume surge and lifts, then I’ll accept the loss and exit.
It’s just past noon now, and I’m waiting for the K-line around 2,533.
#BTC #ETH #以太坊 #币圈 #行情分析
But I’m clear in my mind: this isn’t longs turning stronger; it’s that the shorts don’t want to grind it out around 2,460. Volume is 0.2, turnover is 700 million (700M). With trading compressed like this, even if you try to lift it, nobody wants to take it.
RSI 38.4: it’s not weak enough to count as oversold, and it’s not strong enough to say it’s strengthening. MACD is still bullish, but this is bullish movement on shrinking volume—two different concepts from a bullish crossover on expansion.
MA5 is 2,460, MA20 is 2,462; these two moving averages are intertwined, with price moving along them. MA50 is above, at 2,474, putting pressure overhead.
If I were a holder with a lot of shares, I wouldn’t be in a rush to sell here—and I also couldn’t sell it down easily. The zone from 2,415 to 2,424 is today’s low area and also near the lower Bollinger Band; shorts will likely stop there. What you really need to watch is 2,533 to 2,532—two hours ago’s high—also the dense trapped-supply area. If it rebounds up to that level, there should be positions getting relieved/unwound.
So my thinking is slightly bearish, but I won’t short outright. I’ll wait for a rebound toward around 2,533. Then I’ll consider shorting, with a stop-loss at 2,565 and take-profit around 2,470. If it directly breaks below 2,415, I won’t chase; I’ll wait and reassess around 2,380 to see whether there’s a volume-contraction rebound/stop-loss-like signal.
I might also be wrong. For example, if MACD suddenly shows a volume surge and lifts, then I’ll accept the loss and exit.
It’s just past noon now, and I’m waiting for the K-line around 2,533.
#BTC #ETH #以太坊 #币圈 #行情分析