On August 19, Moderna’s stock surged 177% in a single day.
From $63 straight up to $174. Its market value grew by nearly $45 billion in one day. On the day, the shorts had a paper loss of $5.5 billion.
A vaccine stock—
not AI, not chips, but a cancer vaccine.
——
Moderna and Merck collaborated on a personalized skin cancer vaccine, and the Phase 3 clinical trial succeeded.
In plain language: after cutting out the tumor, this vaccine significantly lowers the chances of cancer coming back and spreading.
Over the past two or three years, the market felt the mRNA pandemic dividend was over—Moderna was basically being treated like a forgotten corpse.
Then, one round of cancer data directly slapped that narrative in the face.
· · · ·
The next day it gave back more than 20%; the profit-taking crowd ran.
But on August 25, Barclays raised its target price, and it jumped another 14%, closing around 158.
It’s not a one-day drop and you’re dead. Someone is seriously re-pricing the story.
——
My take:
The AI narrative is too crowded. The market is extremely hungry for a “real breakthrough that isn’t AI.”
Anything that can prove “technology can still truly save lives” will be priced insanely.
I won’t chase it just because it spiked one day, and I won’t dismiss it just because it pulled back the next day. The scientific progress is real, but the pricing may be running ahead of commercialization. $MRNA
From $63 straight up to $174. Its market value grew by nearly $45 billion in one day. On the day, the shorts had a paper loss of $5.5 billion.
A vaccine stock—
not AI, not chips, but a cancer vaccine.
——
Moderna and Merck collaborated on a personalized skin cancer vaccine, and the Phase 3 clinical trial succeeded.
In plain language: after cutting out the tumor, this vaccine significantly lowers the chances of cancer coming back and spreading.
Over the past two or three years, the market felt the mRNA pandemic dividend was over—Moderna was basically being treated like a forgotten corpse.
Then, one round of cancer data directly slapped that narrative in the face.
· · · ·
The next day it gave back more than 20%; the profit-taking crowd ran.
But on August 25, Barclays raised its target price, and it jumped another 14%, closing around 158.
It’s not a one-day drop and you’re dead. Someone is seriously re-pricing the story.
——
My take:
The AI narrative is too crowded. The market is extremely hungry for a “real breakthrough that isn’t AI.”
Anything that can prove “technology can still truly save lives” will be priced insanely.
I won’t chase it just because it spiked one day, and I won’t dismiss it just because it pulled back the next day. The scientific progress is real, but the pricing may be running ahead of commercialization. $MRNA