$BTC U.S. stocks are warming up, but BTC is retreating on its own
U.S. stocks rose for the third straight session last night: the Nasdaq +0.66%, Nvidia rebounded +2.2% ahead of earnings, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +1.44%; the 10-year Treasury yield fell for a second straight day, and oil prices plunged 4.57%—the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is close to being reached. Risk appetite has returned across the board.
Then BTC fell 2%, SOL fell 4.6%, XRP fell 5%, and DOGE fell 6%.
Crypto has decoupled from U.S. stocks, and not in a pretty way. This shows this pullback is not being driven by macro forces, but by problems within crypto itself: the short-squeeze fuel has burned out—retail long/short positioning has moved from 0.95 net short back to the 1.0 balanced level, so there is no spring left underneath; profit-taking is locking in gains—August ETF inflows of $2.7 billion set a year-to-date high, and short-term funds are starting to cash out; leverage is retreating—OI has been falling from 108K all the way to 105.9K, while funding rates sit flat at 0.005% like they’re dead.
The technical picture is even more troublesome. After the false breakout at 81,270, the 4H highs have been stepping down all the way: 80,912 → 80,235 → 79,540 → 78,980, a classic descending channel. The overnight spike down to 77,808 was bought back immediately, but the trendline above 79,500 is pressing down hard. In a structure of lower highs, every rebound is an opportunity for people to exit, not a signal to enter.
The upcoming schedule is packed at an annual-level density: tonight at 20:30, PCE + GDP + durable goods all drop at once; tomorrow morning at 4:30, Nvidia reports earnings; Friday at 22:00, Waller debuts at Jackson Hole. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is still stuck at 5.25%, hanging over all risk assets.
My view is very straightforward: there is indeed real buying below 77,800 (that overnight wick was absorbed instantly), but until 79,500 is reclaimed, don’t rush to become bullish. If you have no position, stay out; if you do have a position, reduce risk before the thunder rolls in. Wait for PCE and Nvidia to show their cards for direction—before then, any rebound is not trustworthy.
U.S. stocks rose for the third straight session last night: the Nasdaq +0.66%, Nvidia rebounded +2.2% ahead of earnings, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +1.44%; the 10-year Treasury yield fell for a second straight day, and oil prices plunged 4.57%—the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is close to being reached. Risk appetite has returned across the board.
Then BTC fell 2%, SOL fell 4.6%, XRP fell 5%, and DOGE fell 6%.
Crypto has decoupled from U.S. stocks, and not in a pretty way. This shows this pullback is not being driven by macro forces, but by problems within crypto itself: the short-squeeze fuel has burned out—retail long/short positioning has moved from 0.95 net short back to the 1.0 balanced level, so there is no spring left underneath; profit-taking is locking in gains—August ETF inflows of $2.7 billion set a year-to-date high, and short-term funds are starting to cash out; leverage is retreating—OI has been falling from 108K all the way to 105.9K, while funding rates sit flat at 0.005% like they’re dead.
The technical picture is even more troublesome. After the false breakout at 81,270, the 4H highs have been stepping down all the way: 80,912 → 80,235 → 79,540 → 78,980, a classic descending channel. The overnight spike down to 77,808 was bought back immediately, but the trendline above 79,500 is pressing down hard. In a structure of lower highs, every rebound is an opportunity for people to exit, not a signal to enter.
The upcoming schedule is packed at an annual-level density: tonight at 20:30, PCE + GDP + durable goods all drop at once; tomorrow morning at 4:30, Nvidia reports earnings; Friday at 22:00, Waller debuts at Jackson Hole. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is still stuck at 5.25%, hanging over all risk assets.
My view is very straightforward: there is indeed real buying below 77,800 (that overnight wick was absorbed instantly), but until 79,500 is reclaimed, don’t rush to become bullish. If you have no position, stay out; if you do have a position, reduce risk before the thunder rolls in. Wait for PCE and Nvidia to show their cards for direction—before then, any rebound is not trustworthy.