Let’s talk about trading again:
What exactly is the market trading? And where was my mistake in the recent past?
Many bloggers say that the $40 trillion is simply too big, causing the U.S. debt crisis; the dollar isn’t trustworthy, so the “big pie” is used for hedging.
It sounds reasonable at first glance, but if you think it through carefully, a lot of things are worth questioning.
That $40 trillion in U.S. debt wasn’t formed last week—it accumulated gradually. It definitely isn’t caused by “one thing” that would suddenly trigger a jump in U.S. debt yields.
By “suddenly,” I mean that last week’s U.S. debt yields rose very steeply. That suggests that someone in the market was dumping U.S. Treasuries in a concentrated way.
At this point, Voish said: when U.S. debt yields rise, it’s equivalent to tightening. (That douchebag’s remark affected my judgment.)
In principle, Voish should have stepped in to save the situation—not Bessent.
The Treasury’s unplanned purchases of U.S. Treasuries were to save the yen.
Historically, whenever they have intervened regarding the yen, the market gets worried—so even the yen’s bond market can end up affecting the fundamental position of U.S. Treasuries.
Against this backdrop, when he goes for a buyback, the market starts betting that:
Since that softie Voish won’t make a statement and is also evading responsibility, Bessent has no way to step in to save it.
If you can save it once, there will be a second time. But now there isn’t much money—so continuing to save would basically be like flooding the market with liquidity.
When the dollar can’t hold, the way to fight the dollar is to buy gold. $XAUT
(This is the basic logic behind my gold trading.)
And when I go short on the big pie—$BTC —I even treat the big pie as a technology stock. Plus, historically, the big pie rarely has day-to-day moves that are this large.
So in the community, I’ve always emphasized: don’t just take profit on gold. The reason being—you didn’t capture the big pie’s rally. Gold was a bit weak, but the logic was still consistent. As long as you’re not losing, that’s fine.
#比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线
What exactly is the market trading? And where was my mistake in the recent past?
Many bloggers say that the $40 trillion is simply too big, causing the U.S. debt crisis; the dollar isn’t trustworthy, so the “big pie” is used for hedging.
It sounds reasonable at first glance, but if you think it through carefully, a lot of things are worth questioning.
That $40 trillion in U.S. debt wasn’t formed last week—it accumulated gradually. It definitely isn’t caused by “one thing” that would suddenly trigger a jump in U.S. debt yields.
By “suddenly,” I mean that last week’s U.S. debt yields rose very steeply. That suggests that someone in the market was dumping U.S. Treasuries in a concentrated way.
At this point, Voish said: when U.S. debt yields rise, it’s equivalent to tightening. (That douchebag’s remark affected my judgment.)
In principle, Voish should have stepped in to save the situation—not Bessent.
The Treasury’s unplanned purchases of U.S. Treasuries were to save the yen.
Historically, whenever they have intervened regarding the yen, the market gets worried—so even the yen’s bond market can end up affecting the fundamental position of U.S. Treasuries.
Against this backdrop, when he goes for a buyback, the market starts betting that:
Since that softie Voish won’t make a statement and is also evading responsibility, Bessent has no way to step in to save it.
If you can save it once, there will be a second time. But now there isn’t much money—so continuing to save would basically be like flooding the market with liquidity.
When the dollar can’t hold, the way to fight the dollar is to buy gold. $XAUT
(This is the basic logic behind my gold trading.)
And when I go short on the big pie—$BTC —I even treat the big pie as a technology stock. Plus, historically, the big pie rarely has day-to-day moves that are this large.
So in the community, I’ve always emphasized: don’t just take profit on gold. The reason being—you didn’t capture the big pie’s rally. Gold was a bit weak, but the logic was still consistent. As long as you’re not losing, that’s fine.
#比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线