I made a bold prediction about the BTC trend. Based on the pattern currently about to form, here’s a preliminary take. First, the near-term top structure may form a rising wedge. So using the rising wedge as the basis: within a rising wedge, the internal structure is three high points at the top and two low points at the bottom. From where things stand now, two high points have already formed, and there is still one more high point needed to complete the pattern. If this prediction is correct, the next high point should fall in the 8.25–8.35w range, which is also near the prior high (the planned short entry). After that, a deeper pullback is expected, potentially dropping to around 7w–7.3w.
In the short term, the price may retrace to the 7.8w area. That’s the support region along the lower edge of the wedge and also corresponds to the second retracement low. As long as the price does not break below this level, the final high point should still form. The move would likely quickly spike upward, then “needle back” downward. Therefore, once it reaches the next high point, you can enter a short position. Set the stop loss above 8.4w. If the prediction is right, the profit potential is close to about ten thousand points.
Also, the wedge’s high point is a resistance area on the weekly timeframe trendline. In the last weekly bounce, price touched it and then was pushed down immediately, so I don’t think it will break through that easily. In addition, what we have now is a rebound trend, not a reversal trend. After all, during this strong uptrend, most of the shorts have basically been squeezed out. Short liquidations have become the “fuel” that supports the move. But looking at the weekly liquidation chart, the fuel has already been consumed to a large extent.
Lastly, people who FOMO their way in will inevitably keep chasing prices. Over the past few days of consecutive gains, anyone bold enough to chase after the move made some profit. But after making money, it only fuels desire and confidence. Then, that final leg of chasing—if it comes with a deep pullback—will cause nearly all the profits from the past few days to be given back. Historically, in every uptrend, those who can’t resist chasing at the end usually end up吐 it all back—principal plus interest—during the final phase. That also fits the behavior of “smart money” perfectly.
Of course, the above is only a preliminary pattern-based forecast and reflects my own way of thinking. It’s for reference only. You still need to see whether the pattern can actually form; subsequent actions will depend on whether the top structure confirms.
In the short term, the price may retrace to the 7.8w area. That’s the support region along the lower edge of the wedge and also corresponds to the second retracement low. As long as the price does not break below this level, the final high point should still form. The move would likely quickly spike upward, then “needle back” downward. Therefore, once it reaches the next high point, you can enter a short position. Set the stop loss above 8.4w. If the prediction is right, the profit potential is close to about ten thousand points.
Also, the wedge’s high point is a resistance area on the weekly timeframe trendline. In the last weekly bounce, price touched it and then was pushed down immediately, so I don’t think it will break through that easily. In addition, what we have now is a rebound trend, not a reversal trend. After all, during this strong uptrend, most of the shorts have basically been squeezed out. Short liquidations have become the “fuel” that supports the move. But looking at the weekly liquidation chart, the fuel has already been consumed to a large extent.
Lastly, people who FOMO their way in will inevitably keep chasing prices. Over the past few days of consecutive gains, anyone bold enough to chase after the move made some profit. But after making money, it only fuels desire and confidence. Then, that final leg of chasing—if it comes with a deep pullback—will cause nearly all the profits from the past few days to be given back. Historically, in every uptrend, those who can’t resist chasing at the end usually end up吐 it all back—principal plus interest—during the final phase. That also fits the behavior of “smart money” perfectly.
Of course, the above is only a preliminary pattern-based forecast and reflects my own way of thinking. It’s for reference only. You still need to see whether the pattern can actually form; subsequent actions will depend on whether the top structure confirms.
