Geopolitically, positive signals have arrived today.
On the 25th, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement saying that the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff and the Minister of Interior concluded a one-day visit to Iran. In discussions with their Iranian counterparts, both sides focused on preventing the situation from escalating further, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and accelerating measures to end the conflict.
This marks the first time since the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out that a third country has formally stepped in to mediate and achieved substantive progress in talks. At the same time, Iran and Oman have also restarted negotiations related to the Strait of Hormuz.
If oil prices continue to fall on expectations of the strait being reopened, it would further ease inflationary pressure, giving the Federal Reserve greater room for policy maneuvering—an indirect positive for the crypto market.
On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act finally has a clear timeline.
The CLARITY Act will face a procedural vote (cloture vote) in the Senate at 2:15 a.m. Beijing Time on September 16.
This vote is not the final gate determining whether the bill will pass; rather, it is the first hurdle that decides whether the bill can move into formal consideration on the Senate floor.
To clear the debate-ending threshold, the Senate typically needs 60 votes.
However, Polymarket’s prediction shows that the probability the bill is signed into law in 2026 is only 15%.
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May (15–9), but since then it has stalled at the full Senate level. After summer began, opposition from some lawmakers intensified.
The Coinbase-funded group Stand With Crypto has endorsed 32 lawmakers in the House who voted in favor of the CLARITY Act. But the Senate deadlock is unlikely to be broken in the short term.
Thirteen’s assessment: the probability of the CLARITY Act successfully breaking through on September 16 is extremely low.
A 15% approval chance means the institutional turning point for the crypto industry—shifting from “enforcement regulation” to “codified law regulation”—may be delayed until 2027 or even later.
The good news, however, is that Bitcoin has already been classified as a commodity by both the SEC and the CFTC, and it is “the only token that does not require the CLARITY Act.”
On the 25th, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement saying that the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff and the Minister of Interior concluded a one-day visit to Iran. In discussions with their Iranian counterparts, both sides focused on preventing the situation from escalating further, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and accelerating measures to end the conflict.
This marks the first time since the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out that a third country has formally stepped in to mediate and achieved substantive progress in talks. At the same time, Iran and Oman have also restarted negotiations related to the Strait of Hormuz.
If oil prices continue to fall on expectations of the strait being reopened, it would further ease inflationary pressure, giving the Federal Reserve greater room for policy maneuvering—an indirect positive for the crypto market.
On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act finally has a clear timeline.
The CLARITY Act will face a procedural vote (cloture vote) in the Senate at 2:15 a.m. Beijing Time on September 16.
This vote is not the final gate determining whether the bill will pass; rather, it is the first hurdle that decides whether the bill can move into formal consideration on the Senate floor.
To clear the debate-ending threshold, the Senate typically needs 60 votes.
However, Polymarket’s prediction shows that the probability the bill is signed into law in 2026 is only 15%.
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May (15–9), but since then it has stalled at the full Senate level. After summer began, opposition from some lawmakers intensified.
The Coinbase-funded group Stand With Crypto has endorsed 32 lawmakers in the House who voted in favor of the CLARITY Act. But the Senate deadlock is unlikely to be broken in the short term.
Thirteen’s assessment: the probability of the CLARITY Act successfully breaking through on September 16 is extremely low.
A 15% approval chance means the institutional turning point for the crypto industry—shifting from “enforcement regulation” to “codified law regulation”—may be delayed until 2027 or even later.
The good news, however, is that Bitcoin has already been classified as a commodity by both the SEC and the CFTC, and it is “the only token that does not require the CLARITY Act.”