Binance Square
大仁Jaron
181 Posts

大仁Jaron

Square Verified+
Wb3投研 • 价值投资 • AI研究员|X: @Jaron2277
SOL Holder
SOL Holder
Frequent Trader
3.7 Years
649 Following
31.7K+ Followers
31.8K+ Liked
Posts
PINNED
·
--
Verified
Article
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblockedA “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered. The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying. The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.

The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked

A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
PINNED
On September 10, after the PPI data was released, the market increased its bets on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hike at next week’s meeting. Earlier, the first major inflation report for this week showed that within the 12 months through August, U.S. producer prices rose 5.4%. Prior to the release of this report, the market expected the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15–16 meeting with a probability of about 65%. Based on the CME’s federal funds futures contract prices, that probability is now expected to have risen to around 70%. U.S. Treasury yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 5.63 basis points to 4.893%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 5.96 basis points to 4.487%. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.3381%, the highest level since 2007.
On September 10, after the PPI data was released, the market increased its bets on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hike at next week’s meeting. Earlier, the first major inflation report for this week showed that within the 12 months through August, U.S. producer prices rose 5.4%. Prior to the release of this report, the market expected the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15–16 meeting with a probability of about 65%. Based on the CME’s federal funds futures contract prices, that probability is now expected to have risen to around 70%.
U.S. Treasury yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 5.63 basis points to 4.893%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 5.96 basis points to 4.487%. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.3381%, the highest level since 2007.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
@Aria Daisy Alìyà_Desi
@Aria Daisy Alìyà_Desi
Aria Daisy 阿莉娅_黛西
·
--
Bearish
🎁 BNB COIN GIVEAWAY 🎁

I’m excited to share a 1,000 BNB giveaway with 10 lucky winners! 🔥💛

How to participate:
✅ Follow me
🔄 Repost this post
💬 Comment “3”

Thank you for all your love and support! ❤️
Good luck everyone! 🍀🚀
#BinanceSquareTalks #BNB走势
$BNB $BTC
白鲨观点
·
--
CZ Says BTC’s Next Bull Run Could Surpass Gold—Is This Call Reliable?

Recently, CZ said in an interview:

"Bitcoin’s next bull market could surpass gold’s market cap, becoming the world’s largest store of value."

How much is gold’s market cap? Roughly $17 trillion.

BTC is currently $1.5 trillion—so that means it would need to rise more than 10x.

The price would likely need to reach around $800,000 per coin.

Sounds pretty outrageous, right?

But if you look back:

In 2017, when people said BTC could reach $10,000, no one believed it.
In 2020, when people said BTC could reach $100,000, no one believed it.
And now, when people say it could reach $800,000, nobody believes it again…

Of course, when CZ says “could,” he doesn’t mean “will for sure.”

And he’s talking about the “next bull market,” not “this year.”

My personal view is:

Surpassing gold isn’t impossible, but it’s not something that can be completed in the next cycle.

It’s like saying, “This kid might grow to two meters tall in the future”—

It’s theoretically possible, but there are several stages of development in between.

For BTC to surpass gold, it needs three conditions:

Institutional comprehensive allocation—right now, ETFs are only just getting started; pensions and sovereign wealth funds are the real bulk.
Clear regulatory framework—America, the EU, and China all need明确框架.
Intergenerational shift in understanding—young people buying BTC more than buying gold is a matter of time.

With these three conditions, the first is already happening, the second is underway, and the third needs time.

So CZ’s direction is correct, but the timing may be a bit optimistic.

It’s like a weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow, but the rain falls the day after instead.

I’ve put together a “BTC Market Cap Surpasses Gold Roadmap,”

including key time milestones, catalyst events, and price projections.

Come to my chat room and type “gold” to get it.

Do you think BTC can surpass gold within your lifetime? Share your thoughts in the comments.

#BinanceSquare #BitcoinDunyamiz #CZ #黄金 #加密投资
@Prof Denia
@Prof Denia
Prof Denial
·
--
‼️Claim Fast Before it's gone ‼️
Hurry, $DOGE 🐕 Reward Is Waiting!

Come quickly, claim your reward & enjoy

Don’t wait too long it could be gone soon!
@Flora Firdos
@Flora Firdos
Flora Firdos
·
--
🎉 WHO WANTS FREE $USDT ? 💸👀
Here’s your chance to join the giveaway!
📌 Entry steps:
💬 Comment 999
❤️ Like this post
🔄 Repost & share
➕ Follow the account
The sooner you enter, the sooner you’re in the game. 🚀
Good luck everyone! 🎁🔥
#USDT🔥🔥🔥 #CryptoGiveaway #Airdrop #USDTfree
@Crypto Trading Gold Rush Xiao Xuanfeng
@Crypto Trading Gold Rush Xiao Xuanfeng
币圈淘金小旋风
·
--
$ZEC $SOL $BNB Recently, the US stock market has basically been a dead pond—no energy or momentum. Yesterday, all three major indexes closed lower across the board. It looks like a simple pullback at first glance, but what really matters is where the money is going. At the market’s foundation, trading logic is undergoing a major shift.💥

Once oil prices firmly hold above 100, inflation pressure will rise again—giving the Federal Reserve a stronger pretext to keep hiking rates. As long as rate-hike expectations heat up and liquidity tightens, the crypto market will definitely feel the pressure too.💥

Previously, the market was driven forward by AI-related hot themes. Now, funds are taking priority and focusing on macro data like inflation and oil prices. Money is shifting to risk avoidance instead of blindly chasing high-risk assets. For coins like BTC and ETH, it’s therefore hard to sustain a continuous rally. Choppy, back-and-forth price action will become the norm.💥

Fellow retail traders, don’t keep using old ways of trading. Don’t assume you can just go all-in simply because it’s a bull market. Once the macro wind changes, needle-like spikes through the chart will happen more frequently. Keep leverage under control—don’t rush in just because you see a small rebound.💥

Right now, the priority is to stay on the sidelines, watch more and move less. Keep an eye on oil prices and Fed-related news. The market logic has already changed—old experience is more likely to get you into a big pitfall. Preserving capital comes first.💥#原油涨至7月来最高 #灰度ZcashETF资产突破5亿美元 #美国银行集团完成USBDC稳定币试点
Jerry杰瑞杰瑞
·
--
Forwarding rewards for you🧧🧧🧧🎁🎁🎁
Mahi_玛希BNB
·
--
Bullish
🟡 Binance Square — BTC Market Update

BTC is holding near $79K as traders watch the next breakout. $BTC is currently around $79.2K, with the $82K–$83K resistance zone remaining important. A strong break above this area could improve bullish momentum, while losing the $78.7K support could bring more downside pressure.

1️⃣ **Follow MAHI BNB** ✅
2️⃣ **Like & Comment “BTC”** ✅
3️⃣ **Repost This Post** 🔄✅
4️⃣ **Stay Tuned for the Next Gift 🎁🧧** ✅

For now, volume + price action are key. Stay patient and manage risk. 📊

#BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Binance #BinanceSquare #Trading #CryptoMarketMoves #writetoearn
$BNB $ETH


自由1688
·
--
Samsung increases investment in Apple foldable iPhone Duo panel supply

Samsung Display has drawn up a new business plan, projecting a substantial increase in the number of foldable OLED panels it will supply to Apple next year, as well as OLED panels for iPads. Under the plan, the supply target for foldable OLED panels will rise from 8 million units this year by 87.5% to 15 million units next year; the iPad OLED panel supply target will increase from 2 million units to 9 million units.
路人1688luren
·
--
#灰度ZcashETF资产突破5亿美元 9月15日Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty stated at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming that September 15 will serve as a key indicator of the prospects for the CLARITY Act—on that day, the Senate will hold its first procedural vote, and the legislation can move forward only with the support of 60 votes. Alderoty said that if the bill fails, the SEC and the CFTC will continue to advance their respective rulemaking, and he hopes the bill can pass. Citing research data from the National Crypto Association, he warned that if the legislation cannot be passed, the United States could push 232,000 crypto-related jobs and $55 billion in economic activity overseas. On the same day, the SEC proposed a new rule titled “Regulation Crypto Assets,” providing an exemption pathway for digital asset financing.$BNB
蒋雅琪1368
·
--
Bitcoin’s rebound hides a trap: big players are collectively exiting. What should you do next?

Many people are confused right now. Bitcoin is clearly rebounding—but why are the top whales quietly distributing and leaving? At this moment, should you hold, buy the dip, or take profit? This piece lays out the future timing, the risk turning point, and the trading plan in one go. Read it carefully to avoid missing out or getting stuck and losing on both ends!

1. From the technical chart, it’s clearly visible that Bitcoin’s daily chart has already formed a death cross structure. Bullish momentum has been steadily exhausted, and the weakness of the uptrend has appeared. This current second surge and rebound is not the start of a new trend—it's simply short-term positive sentiment driven by the market front-running the decision on the crypto bill.

Here’s the key reminder for everyone: at this stage, you must absolutely not chase longs! If you still hold long positions, take the chance during this rally to close at higher levels and book profits. Don’t get greedy and bet on a tail-end move.

2. Combining the time cycles and market rhythm, the prediction is: around September 15th, Bitcoin will begin a two-week round of pullback and washing. The pullback window will continue until the end of September. After this deeper pullback finishes, there will be a very high-quality opportunity to set up long positions (dip-buying) for this cycle.

There are two position strategies to distinguish:
For long-term spot positions, you can patiently hold and keep the bigger picture—hold through to the end of this bull cycle. But for leveraged contract long positions, since they’ve already captured a big wave of profits, you must protect your gains and take profits—don’t let floating profit turn into floating loss.

3. Now let’s talk about the macro key that many people tend to overlook: international oil prices are still surging. The time left for the U.S. side to adjust policy is limited. The probability of subsequent policy cooling and active market “sell-offs” continues to rise.

If oil prices crash and correct sharply, it will directly drive the U.S. stock market, and liquidity in the crypto market will also passively loosen. That can trigger a short-term rally. So now the market has two-way uncertainty: the crypto bill’s positive news around September 15th will most likely be “good news already priced in,” and the move may fade as the行情兑现 (the market executes expectations and pulls back). But the rebound driven by oil-price linkage is completely random in timing.

The bull market is still ongoing—real big opportunities are still ahead. Our only core strategy right now is: protect your existing profits, avoid the risk of a short-term pullback, and wait for the bottom.

Get the rhythm right, and the bull market can double!
白鲨观点
·
--
BTC drops below the 78,000 mark; today’s PPI is the "trailer" for tomorrow’s CPI

This morning, BTC tested the 78,000 support and dipped as low as 77,900.

The market is like a fully drawn bow—just waiting for tonight’s PPI and tomorrow’s CPI to release the string.

Let’s first talk about why PPI matters.

PPI is the Producer Price Index, essentially a "leading indicator" for CPI—

When factory costs rise, it will eventually filter through to consumers.

Market expectations: PPI m/m +0.2%, y/y +1.4%.

If it comes in above expectations, it’s basically a preview that tomorrow’s CPI won’t look good either,

and the probability of further rate hikes will keep climbing—BTC will likely have to test lower levels.

On the other hand, if PPI comes in below expectations,

the market will advance its optimism that "CPI may also cool off,"

and the 80,000 level might be reclaimed just like that.

My plan today: I’m not betting on direction—I'll wait for the data.

I’ve reduced my position to 30%, keeping plenty of dry powder. I’ll act once the data is out.

The PPI data will be released tonight at 20:30. I’ll interpret it in real time in the chatroom.

If you want to know first how the data will impact the market, click my avatar to enter the chatroom. Code: "PPI".

By the way, do you think today’s PPI will beat expectations or come in below them?

Place your bets in the comments: beat expectations deduct 1, below expectations deduct 2.

#BinanceSquare #bitcoin #PPI #加密市场 #CPI前瞻
@Dingdang Doraemon
@Dingdang Doraemon
叮当 Doraemon
·
--
5 U buys America’s seven tech giants—dreams you never thought of
Binance launches a US stock recurring buy feature, supporting 100 stocks and ETFs.
On September 10, Binance announced the launch of the Stock Recurring Buy (stock investment plan) feature, which allows eligible users to automatically purchase specified stocks and ETFs on a fixed cycle without needing to place orders manually each time. The feature went live on September 10.
Currently, it supports 100 stocks and ETFs, including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Coinbase, Robinhood, as well as popular ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, and VOO. Users can choose one or multiple stocks within the same recurring investment plan.
Log in to explore more content
Join global crypto users on Binance Square
⚡️ Get latest and useful information about crypto.
💬 Trusted by the world’s largest crypto exchange.
👍 Discover real insights from verified creators.
Email / Phone number
Sitemap
Cookie Preferences
Platform T&Cs