I missed that spike in buying volume and the bull pull at dawn.
It wasn’t that I didn’t see it—just that the 80,000 integer level hesitated for a moment, and then it pierced straight through all the way to the 81,273 prior high before stopping. The 4-hour volume is 1.8x, RSI is 68.3, and price is riding just below the upper Bollinger Band—this isn’t just a news-driven tape; it’s real buyers putting up real money.
ETH is weaker. Over the past 24 hours it’s only up 2.46%, volume ratio is 0.9, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate at 0.030991 is still slipping lower. This indicates that money is only flowing into BTC and not into altcoins. If you want to go long alts, you’ll need to wait for the exchange rate to stop falling first.
Back to BTC. Even though MACD is still bearish, the price has already broken above MA5 and MA20, and the moving averages have started to diverge upward. At this point, I trust the volume-price alignment: volume-driven upswings—selling pressure gets eaten—so the short-term bulls are in control.
My plan: once it breaks 81,273 and holds, I’ll chase. Stop loss at 80,000. I’ll reduce the position and look toward the 84,094 upper Bollinger Band. Position size is 30%. If I’m wrong, I can admit it—but if I go all-in and refuse to trim, there’s no saving it even with “immortals.”
With ETH/BTC this weak, I won’t touch it. That top at 81,273 decides whether this move is a true reversal or just a rebound.
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #币圈 #Market analysis
It wasn’t that I didn’t see it—just that the 80,000 integer level hesitated for a moment, and then it pierced straight through all the way to the 81,273 prior high before stopping. The 4-hour volume is 1.8x, RSI is 68.3, and price is riding just below the upper Bollinger Band—this isn’t just a news-driven tape; it’s real buyers putting up real money.
ETH is weaker. Over the past 24 hours it’s only up 2.46%, volume ratio is 0.9, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate at 0.030991 is still slipping lower. This indicates that money is only flowing into BTC and not into altcoins. If you want to go long alts, you’ll need to wait for the exchange rate to stop falling first.
Back to BTC. Even though MACD is still bearish, the price has already broken above MA5 and MA20, and the moving averages have started to diverge upward. At this point, I trust the volume-price alignment: volume-driven upswings—selling pressure gets eaten—so the short-term bulls are in control.
My plan: once it breaks 81,273 and holds, I’ll chase. Stop loss at 80,000. I’ll reduce the position and look toward the 84,094 upper Bollinger Band. Position size is 30%. If I’m wrong, I can admit it—but if I go all-in and refuse to trim, there’s no saving it even with “immortals.”
With ETH/BTC this weak, I won’t touch it. That top at 81,273 decides whether this move is a true reversal or just a rebound.
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #币圈 #Market analysis