US Treasury yields are set to spiral out of control again—can the Ministry of Finance really keep them under control?
Arthur Hayes’s newly published article, 《Same as Different》, has indeed hit the macro truth: regardless of whether it’s Yellen or Bessent, as long as the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches the 5% red line, the Treasury’s only solution is to find ways to effectively print money.
From Yellen squeezing reverse repo funding by relying on short-term Treasury bills, to Bessent ramping up repo operations in the long-end Treasuries—on the surface it’s about optimizing the structure, but in reality it’s all about transfusing the market.
But this time, there’s an even harsher takeaway: the bond “guards” aren’t buying it anymore. Faced with massive debt and inflation expectations, small-scale repo operations can’t possibly cap yields. And the Treasury can’t sit idly by and let high interest rates crush US stocks and the debt burden. Under pressure, the only option is to open the floodgates wider.
When Treasuries are no longer seen as a safe haven, the rise in gold and Bitcoin won’t be about “risk-off” hedging—it will be the market pricing in, in advance, the depreciation of the US dollar’s purchasing power. Bitcoin is essentially a high-leverage measurement instrument for the global fiat money printing.
Outlook:
The tug-of-war between short-term Treasuries and the Treasury Department will intensify, and the crypto market will see violent shakeouts.
The turning point for mid-to-long-term liquidity has already been established. Fiat currency continues to be diluted. Scarce assets—$BTC $ETH gold—will keep getting well-fed and will overflow with liquidity.
Hold spot positions firmly, and avoid getting liquidated by excessive leverage right before a surge.
Paper can never really hold back fire. As long as the money printer can’t stop, Bitcoin can’t keep getting cheap.
DYOR
Arthur Hayes’s newly published article, 《Same as Different》, has indeed hit the macro truth: regardless of whether it’s Yellen or Bessent, as long as the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches the 5% red line, the Treasury’s only solution is to find ways to effectively print money.
From Yellen squeezing reverse repo funding by relying on short-term Treasury bills, to Bessent ramping up repo operations in the long-end Treasuries—on the surface it’s about optimizing the structure, but in reality it’s all about transfusing the market.
But this time, there’s an even harsher takeaway: the bond “guards” aren’t buying it anymore. Faced with massive debt and inflation expectations, small-scale repo operations can’t possibly cap yields. And the Treasury can’t sit idly by and let high interest rates crush US stocks and the debt burden. Under pressure, the only option is to open the floodgates wider.
When Treasuries are no longer seen as a safe haven, the rise in gold and Bitcoin won’t be about “risk-off” hedging—it will be the market pricing in, in advance, the depreciation of the US dollar’s purchasing power. Bitcoin is essentially a high-leverage measurement instrument for the global fiat money printing.
Outlook:
The tug-of-war between short-term Treasuries and the Treasury Department will intensify, and the crypto market will see violent shakeouts.
The turning point for mid-to-long-term liquidity has already been established. Fiat currency continues to be diluted. Scarce assets—$BTC $ETH gold—will keep getting well-fed and will overflow with liquidity.
Hold spot positions firmly, and avoid getting liquidated by excessive leverage right before a surge.
Paper can never really hold back fire. As long as the money printer can’t stop, Bitcoin can’t keep getting cheap.
DYOR
